What is AN2 Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
AN2 Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
AN2 Therapeutics (AN2 Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1800 El Camino Real, Suite D, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94027
AN2 Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing treatments for rare, chronic, and serious infectious diseases with high unmet needs. The initial product candidate is epetraborole, a once-daily oral treatment for patients with chronic non-tuberculous mycobacterial, or NTM, lung disease.
Executives
| Joseph S Zakrzewski |
director |
509 WATERVIEW PLACE, NEW HOPE PA 18938 |
| Kabeer Aziz |
director |
376 MANHATTAN AVENUE APT. 3, BROOKLYN NY 11211 |
| Adjuvant Global Health Technology Fund De, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O ADJUVANT CAPITAL, L.P., 501 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1404, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Robin Shane Readnour |
director |
3835 CLEGHORN AVENUE, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37215 |
| Kevin Michael Krause |
officer: Chief Strategy Officer |
369 27TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94131 |
| Eric Easom |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
171 FOREST LN., MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Joshua M Eizen |
officer: See Remarks |
3023 MONTBRETIA WAY, SAN RAMON CA 94582 |
| Margaret M Fitzpatrick |
director |
C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 343 ALLERTON AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Ra Capital Nexus Fund Ii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Melvin K Spigelman |
director |
THE MEDICINES COMPANY, 8 CAMPUS DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| Sanjay Chanda |
officer: Chief Development Officer |
C/O ANACOR PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1020 EAST MEADOW CIRCLE, PALO ALTO CA 94303 |
| Adjuvant Global Health Technology Fund, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O ADJUVANT CAPITAL, L.P., 501 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1404, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Michael Adrian Nazak |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
5941 OPTICAL COURT, SAN JOSE CA 95138 |
| Lucy Day |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2032 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
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