What is Anika Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Anika Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Anika Therapeutics (Anika Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
32 Wiggins Avenue, Bedford, MA, USA, 01730
Anika Therapeutics Inc is an orthopedic medicines company. It is committed to improving the lives of patients with degenerative orthopedic diseases and traumatic conditions with clinically meaningful therapies. The company focuses on orthopedics, including osteoarthritis pain management, regenerative solutions, soft tissue repair, and bone preserving joint technologies. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Anne Nunes |
officer: SVP, Chief Operations Officer |
32 WIGGINS AVENUE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| Gary P Fischetti |
director |
600 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, 4TH FLOOR, BILLERICA MA 01821 |
| David Colleran |
officer: EVP, General Counsel, Corp Sec |
600 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, BILLERICA MA 01821 |
| Cheryl R Blanchard |
director |
C/O ZIMMER, INC., P.O. BOX 708, WARSAW IN 46580 |
| Michael L Levitz |
officer: EVP, CFO, Treasurer |
C/O ANALOGIC CORPORATION, 8 CENTENNIAL DRIVE, PEABODY MA 01960 |
| Sheryl L Conley |
director |
C/O NEURONETICS, INC., 3222 PHOENIXVILLE PIKE, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Henneman John B Iii |
director |
311 C ENTERPRISE DRIVE, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536 |
| Raymond J Land |
director |
|
| Stephen Richard |
director |
C/O ANIKA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 32 WIGGINS AVENUE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| James Loerop |
officer: EVP Business Development |
C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 640 LEE ROAD, SUITE 200, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Sylvia Cheung |
officer: CFO |
ANIKA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 32 WIGGINS AVENUE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| Glenn R. Larsen |
director |
32 WIGGINS AVENUE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| Joseph I Bower |
director |
32 WIGGINS AVENUE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| Jeffery S Thompson |
director |
1140 HAVENBROOK COURT, SUWANEE GA 30024 |
| Joseph G Darling |
officer: President |
501 MANDALAY AVE., UNIT 409, CLEARWATER BEACH FL 33767 |
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