What is Aemetis Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Aemetis Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Aemetis (Aemetis) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20400 Stevens Creek Boulevard, Suite 700, Cupertino, CA, USA, 95014
Aemetis Inc is an international renewable fuel and biochemicals company focused on the production of renewable fuels and chemicals through the acquisition, development and commercialization of technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products through the conversion of first-generation ethanol and biodiesel plants into advanced biorefineries. It owns and operates an approximately 65 million gallon per year ethanol production facility located in Keyes, California. In addition to low carbon renewable fuel ethanol, the Keyes Plant produces Wet Distillers Grains, Distillers Corn Oil, and Condensed Distillers Solubles, all of which are sold to local dairies and feedlots as animal feed. It operates in the reportable geographic segments of North America and India.
Executives
| Naomi Louise Boness |
director |
9 GOLD POPPY CT, DANVILLE CA 94526 |
| James Michael Rockett |
officer: EVP, GC, and Corp. Sec'y |
20400 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
| Timothy Alan Simon |
director |
788 JAMESTOWN AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94124 |
| Andrew B Foster |
officer: Exec. Vice President |
|
| Francis P Barton |
director |
C/O INVENTERGY GLOBAL, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 180, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| John R Block |
director |
ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
| Sanjeev Gupta |
officer: Executive Vice President |
115 MAGNOLIA POND PLACE, WOODLANDS TX 77381 |
| Todd Waltz |
officer: EVP and CFO |
P O BOX 1445, CUPERTINO CA 95015 |
| Lydia I Beebe |
director |
13403 NORTHWEST FREEWAY, HOUSTON TX 77040 |
| Laird Q Cagan |
director, 10 percent owner |
20400 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., STE 700, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
| Eric A Mcafee |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman/CEO |
|
| Steven W. Hutcheson |
director |
20400 STEVENS CREEK BLVD.,, SUITE 700, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
| Harold Sorgenti |
director |
237 S. 18TH STREET, APT 4A, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Scott Janssen |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
20400 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SUITE 700, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
| Parkash P Ahuja |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
770 JORDAN AVE, LOS ALTOS CA 94022 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
AMTX has been successfully added to your