Altus Power (Altus Power) Predictability Rank

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What is Altus Power Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Altus Power Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Altus Power (Altus Power) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » Altus Power Inc (NYSE:AMPS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8770:Germany

Address

2200 Atlantic Street, 6th Floor, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.altuspower.com

Altus Power Inc is a renewable energy generation company focused on the commercial and industrial, public sector, and community solar customers. It operates as a developer, owner and operator of large-scale roof, ground and carport-based photovoltaic and energy storage systems, as well as electric vehicle charging facilities.

Executives

Lars Norell	director, officer: See Remarks	12 EGGLESTON LANE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Dustin Weber	officer: See Remarks	2200 ATLANTIC STREET, 6TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Anthony Savino	officer: See Remarks	2200 ATLANTIC STREET, 6TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Gso Altus Holdings Lp	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
William F Concannon	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	200 PARK AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10166
Gregg J Felton	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O FULL CIRCLE CAPITAL CORPORATION, 800 WESTCHESTER AVE., RYE BROOK NY 10573
Diane D Brink	director	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Valueact Capital Management, Llc	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Gso Altus Holdings Associates Llc	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
Sharon Daley	director	2200 ATLANTIC STREET, 6TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Cbre Acquisition Sponsor, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	2100 MCKENNEY AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201
Robert M Horn	director	C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Cbre Group, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1250, DALLAS TX 75201
Cbre Services, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CBRE, 2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1250, DALLAS TX 75201
Christine Rose Detrick	director	200 CLARENDON STREET, T-9, BOSTON MA 02116