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American Independence (American Independence) Predictability Rank


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What is American Independence Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


American Independence Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

American Independence Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of American Independence's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


American Independence (American Independence) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
American Independence Corp is a Delaware corporation. The Company is an insurance holding Company, which provides specialized health coverage and related services to commercial customers and individuals. The Company focuses on niche health products and/or narrowly defined distribution channels in the United States. It's wholly owned subsidiary, Independence American Insurance Company, markets its products through IHC Risk Solutions, LLC, IHC Specialty Benefits, Inc., and IPA Family, LLC, which are subsidiaries of AMIC, and through independent brokers, producers and agents. Independence American is licensed to write property and/or casualty insurance in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and has an A- (Excellent) rating from A.M. Best Company, Inc. Risk Solutions is a full-service direct writer of medical stop-loss insurance for self-insured employer groups. Risk Solutions has offices near Hartford, Connecticut and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and markets and underwrites employer medical stop-loss and group life mainly for Standard Security Life Insurance Company of New York. It also writes, to a much lesser extent, for three other carriers, including Madison National Life Insurance Company, Inc. and Independence American. Independence Holding Company and its subsidiaries including, among others, Standard Security Life and Madison National Life are collectively referred to as "IHC". Independence American writes group important medical, medical stop-loss, crucial medical plans for individuals and families, short-term medical, and dental, and began writing pet insurance in 2012.Independence American competes with many larger insurance and reinsurance companies and managed care organizations. Risk Solutions competes with many other managing general underwriters, insurance companies, and MCOs. AMIC is an insurance holding company; as such, AMIC and its subsidiaries are subject to regulation and supervision by multiple state insurance regulators, including the Office of the Insurance Commissioner of the State of Delaware.
Executives
Teresa A Herbert director, officer: CFO & SVP 96 CUMMINGS POINT RD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Ronald I Simon director 485 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Thung Roy T K director, officer: CEO 96 CUMMINGS POINT RD STAMFORD CT 06902
James G Tatum director 96 CUMMINGS POINT RD STAMFORD CT 06902
David T Kettig director, officer: President 96 CUMMINGS POINT RD STAMFORD CT 06902
Steven B Lapin director 96 CUMMINGS POINT RD STAMFORD CT 06902
Brian Schlier officer: Corporate Vice President - Tax 96 CUMMINGS POINT RD STAMFORD CT 06902
Gary Balzofiore officer: Corporate Vice President 485 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jeffrey C Smedsrud officer: Senior Vice President 8009 34TH AVENUE SOUTH #360 BLOOMINGTON MN 55420
Erickson Bernon Reneld Jr officer: Chief Health Actuary and SVP INDEPENDENCE HOLDING COMPANY 485 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Scott Michael Wood officer: Senior Vice President 2101 W. PEORIA AVE, SUITE 100 PHOENIX AZ 85029
Paul R Janerico officer: VP - Internal Audit 96 CUMMINGS POINT RD STAMFORD CT 06902
Henry B Spencer officer: VP - Investments 96 CUMMINGS POINT ROAD STAMFORD CT 06902
Roy L Standfest officer: V.P.& Chief Investment Officer 96 CUMMINGS POINT RD STAMFORD CT 06902

American Independence (American Independence) Headlines

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