Arcadium Lithium (Arcadium Lithium) Predictability Rank

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What is Arcadium Lithium Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arcadium Lithium Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arcadium Lithium (Arcadium Lithium) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Arcadium Lithium PLC (NYSE:ALTM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ARLTF:USA 7WO:Germany 7WO:Germany 7WO:Germany 7WO0:Germany LTM:Australia

Address

1818 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19103

Website

https://www.livent.com

Arcadium Lithium is a pure-play lithium producer that was formed in the Allkem-Livent merger in January 2024. Arcadium should benefit from increased lithium demand via higher electric vehicle adoption, as lithium is a key component of EV batteries. The company's low-cost lithium carbonate production comes from two brine resources in Argentina. Arcadium also produces spodumene, a hard rock lithium upstream concentrate, from a mine in Australia and operates downstream lithium hydroxide conversion plants in the United States and China.

Executives

Gilberto Antoniazzi	officer: Vice President and CFO	LIVENT CORPORATION, C/O FMC CORPORATION, 2929 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Paul W Graves	director, officer: President and CEO	1735 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Christina Lampe-onnerud	director	C/O FUELCELL ENERGY, INC., 3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810
Pablo Marcet	director	C/O GEO LOGIC SA, PASCUAL, FICHERA Y, ASOC., CERRITO 1070, PISO 8, BUENOS AIRES C1 1010
Ronald B Stark	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O NRG ENERGY, INC., 211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Nicholas Pfeiffer	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1735 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
G Peter Daloia	director
Steven T Merkt	director	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Michael F Barry	director	ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 HECTOR ST, CONSHOHOCHEN PA 19428
Pierre R Brondeau	director	ROHAM AND HAAS CO, 100 INDEPENDENCE MALL WEST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19106
Robert C Pallash	director	17000 ROTUNDA DRIVE, DEARBORN MI 48120
Andrea E Utecht	director	1735 MARKET ST, 15TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Fmc Corp	10 percent owner	2929 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Sara Ponessa	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	C/O LIVENT CORP., 1818 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Thomas Schneberger	officer: Vice President and COO	C/O FMC CORP, 2929 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104