What is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
675 West Kendall Street, Henri A. Termeer Square, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is a leader in the study of RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics. RNAi is a naturally occurring biological pathway within cells for sequence-specific silencing and regulation of gene expression. Alnylam has five drugs on the market: Onpattro and Amvuttra for hATTR amyloidosis, Givlaari for acute hepatic porphyria, Oxlumo for primary hyperoxaluria type 1, and Leqvio for hypercholesterolemia. It also has several clinical programs across various therapeutic areas: genetic medicines; cardio-metabolic diseases; hepatic infectious diseases, and CNS/ocular diseases. Upfront fees from research partnerships have boosted Alnylam's cash levels, and the company stands to see additional milestones and royalties from drugs commercialized under collaboration partnerships.
Executives
| Michael W Bonney |
director |
65 HAYDEN AVE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Pushkal Garg |
officer: CMO & EVP Dev & Med Affairs |
C/O SQZ BIOTECHNOLOGIES COMPANY, 200 ARSENAL YARDS BOULEVARD, SUITE 210, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Akshay Vaishnaw |
officer: SVP, Clinical Research |
300 THIRD STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Yvonne Greenstreet |
officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer |
PACIRA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 5 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| Jeffrey V. Poulton |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
300 THIRD STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Tolga Tanguler |
officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer |
675 WEST KENDALL STREET, HENRI A. TERMEER SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Indrani Lall Franchini |
officer: EVP, CLO & Secretary |
C/O ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 100 COLLEGE STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| Peter N Kellogg |
director |
MERCK & CO., INC, ONE MERCK DRIVE., P.O. BOX 100, WHITEHOUSE STATION NJ 08889-0100 |
| Carolyn R Bertozzi |
director |
LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285 |
| Dennis A Ausiello |
director |
PFIZER INC ATTN CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Charles Elliott Sigal |
director |
32 BREARLY ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Phillip A Sharp |
director |
BIOGEN INC LEGAL DEPARTMENT, 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| John Maraganore |
director, officer: President and CEO |
75 SIDNEY ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Laurie Keating |
officer: SVP,GC & Secretary |
300 THIRD STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Steven M Paul |
director |
C/O ELI LITTY & CO, LIIY CORPORATE CENTER DC 1093, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
ALNY has been successfully added to your