Alight (Alight) Predictability Rank

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What is Alight Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alight Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alight (Alight) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Alight Inc (NYSE:ALIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

A9L0:Germany

Address

4 Overlook Point, Lincolnshire, IL, USA, 60069

Website

https://www.alight.com

Alight Inc is a provider of integrated, cloud-based human capital solutions that empower clients and employees to manage health, wealth and HR needs. Geographically, the company generates a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Richard N Massey	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	900 S. SHACKLEFORD ROAD, SUITE 401, LITTLE ROCK AR 72211
Blackstone Management Associates Vii Nq L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP L.P., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Bx Tempo Ml Holdco 1 L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Holdings I/ii Gp L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gregory A. George	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	4 OVERLOOK POINT, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
Kausik Rajgopal	director	4 OVERLOOK POINT, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
Lenore D Williams	director	601 RIVERSIDE AVE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Martin Felli	officer: See Remarks	4 OVERLOOK POINT, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
Bx Tempo Ml Holdco 1 Gp L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Capital Partners Vii.2 (ipo) Nq L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Bx Tempo Ml Holdco 2 L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Bx Tempo Ml Holdco 2 Gp L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Capital Partners Vii Nq L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP L.P., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Holdings Iii L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Foley William P Ii	director	FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC., 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204