What is Avalon Globocare Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Avalon Globocare Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Avalon Globocare (Avalon Globocare) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4400 Route 9 South, Suite 3100, Freehold, NJ, USA, 07728
Avalon Globocare Corp is an intelligent biotech developer and healthcare service provider dedicated to promoting and empowering high-impact, transformative biotechnology, clinical applications, and healthcare facility management. It has two reportable segments: the real property operating segment which is the key revenue driver; medical-related consulting services segment. The company focuses on diagnostic and therapeutic areas like early detection of oral cancer, ovarian cancer, kidney cancer, skin regeneration and anti-fibrosis, and treatments of degenerative disorders.
Executives
| Lourdes Felix |
director |
15 CALLE VERANO, RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA CA 92688 |
| W J Tauzin |
director |
901 HUGH WALLIS ROAD S, LAFAYETTE LA 70508 |
| Wenzhao Lu |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O GLOBAL TECHNOLOGIES CORP., 3 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 101, FREEHOLD NJ 97728 |
| Steven Andrew Sanders |
director |
431 EAST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Yancen Lu |
director |
14009 SE 50TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006 |
| Stilley William B. Iii |
director |
1180 SEMINOLE TRAIL, SUITE 495, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22901 |
| Tevi Troy |
director |
611 SOMERSWORTH WAY, SILVER SPRING MD 20902 |
| Luisa Ingargiola |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4826 BLUE JAY CIRCLE, PALM HARBOR FL 34683 |
| David Jin |
director, officer: CEO and President |
C/O GLOBAL TECHNOLOGIES CORP., 3 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 101, FREEHOLD NJ 97728 |
| Yue Charles Li |
director |
C/O AVALON GLOBOCARE CORP., 4400 ROUTE 9 SOUTH, SUITE 3100, FREEHOLD NJ 07728 |
| Meng Li |
director, officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O GLOBAL TECHNOLOGIES CORP., 3 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 101, FREEHOLD NJ 97728 |
| Steven Philip Sukel |
director |
33 ALPINE DRIVE, MORGANVILLE NJ 07751 |
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