Akari Therapeutics (Akari Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Akari Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Akari Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Akari Therapeutics (Akari Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Akari Therapeutics PLC (NAS:AKTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CLA:Germany

Address

75/76 Wimpole Street, London, GBR, W1G 9RT

Website

https://www.akaritx.com

Akari Therapeutics PLC is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on developing inhibitors of acute and chronic inflammation which includes the complement system, the bioamine system and the eicosanoid system for the treatment of rare and orphan diseases. Its main product candidate includes Coversin, Coversin long acting and Coversin dual action. It operates mainly in United States and United Kingdom.

Executives

Donald Allen Williams	director	C/O PRYOR CASHMAN LLP, 7 TIMES SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10036
David Byrne	director	C/O AKARI THERAPEUTICS, PLC, 24 WEST 40TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Robert M Shaw	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O BIOTECHNOLOGY GENERAL CORP, ONE TOWER CENTER BLVD 14TH FLR, EAST BRUNSWICK NJ 08816
Clive Richardson	director, officer: COO	C/O LANDMARK FIDUCIAIRE (SUISSE) SA, 6 PLACE DES EAUX-VIVES, PO BOX 3461, GENEVA V8 1211
Rpc Pharma Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O LANDMARK FIDUCIAIRE (SUISSE) SA, 6 PLACE DES EAUX-VIVES, PO BOX 3461, GENEVA V8 1211
Ray Prudo	director, 10 percent owner	C/O LANDMARK FIDUCIAIRE (SUISSE) SA, 6 PLACE DES EAUX-VIVES, PO BOX 3461, GENEVA V8 1211
Stuart Ungar	director, 10 percent owner	C/O LANDMARK FIDUCIAIRE (SUISSE) SA, 6 PLACE DES EAUX-VIVES, PO BOX 3461, GENEVA V8 1211
James Hill	director, 10 percent owner	C/O LANDMARK FIDUCIAIRE (SUISSE) SA, 6 PLACE DES EAUX-VIVES, PO BOX 3461, GENEVA V8 1211
Mark S Cohen	director	C/O CELSUS THERAPEUTICS PLC, 24 WEST 40TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10018
Allan Shaw	director	C/O CELSUS THERAPEUTICS PLC, 24 WEST 40TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10018
Dov Elefant	officer: Chief Financial Officer	EPICEPT CORPORATION, 270 SYLVAN AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS NJ 07632
Gur Roshwalb	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CELSUS THERAPEUTICS PLC, 24 WEST 40TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10018
David Sidransky	director	JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, 720 RUTLAND AVENUE, BALTIMORE MD 21205
Amos Eiran	director	C/O CELSUS THERAPEUTICS PLC, 24 WEST 40TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10018
Lau Johnson Yiu Nam	director