Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings (Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings (Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc (NYSE:AJRD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

222 N. Pacific Coast Highway, Suite 500, El Segundo, CA, USA, 90245

Website

https://www.aerojetrocketdyne.com

Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc manufactures aerospace and defense products and systems. It produces driving and launch systems for defense and space applications, weapons, and weapons systems for tactical missions. The systems can provide directional control for rockets, satellites, missiles, and other technical products. It operates in two segments: aerospace and defense, and real estate. The company manufactures its aerospace and defense products for the U.S. government, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, aerospace and defense prime contractors, and portions of the commercial sector. The real estate segment focuses on rezoning, entitlement, sale, and leasing of real estate assets. The company's excess real estate is primarily located in California.

Executives

Joseph E. Chontos	officer: See Remarks	222 N. PACIFIC COAST HIGHWAY, SEGUNDO CA 90245
Kevin P. Chilton	director	1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Lance W Lord	director	1110 TRUMPETERS COURT, MONUMENT CO 80132
Eileen P. Drake	director, officer: CEO and President	C/O GENCORP INC., P.O. BOX 537012, SACRAMENTO CA 95853-7012
Marion C Blakey	director	C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Deborah L James	director	1710 SAIC DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Gail Baker	director	C/O LEONARDO DRS, INC., 2345 CRYSTAL DRIVE SUITE 1000, ARLINGTON VA 22202
Daniel L. Boehle	officer: CFO, VP and Controller	C/O AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS, INC., 222 N. SEPULVEDA BOULEVARD, SUITE 500, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Warren G Lichtenstein	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O STEEL PARTNERS II L P, 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Arjun Kampani	officer: VP, Gen Counsel and Secretary	C/O AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS, INC., 2001 AEROJET ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
John D. Schumacher	officer: SVP, Washington Operations	C/O GENCORP INC., P.O. BOX 537012, SACRAMENTO CA 95853-7012
Amy L Gowder	officer: Chief Operating Officer	AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS, INC., 222 N. PACIFIC COAST HIGHWAY, SUITE 500, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Audrey A. Mcniff	director	C/O AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS, INC., 222 N. PACIFIC COAST HIGHWAY, SUITE 500, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Thomas A Corcoran	director	3790 VIA DE LA VALLE, SUITE 311, DEL MAR CA 92014
Martin Turchin	director	CB RICHARD ELLIS, 200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YOK NY 10166