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American Healthcare REIT (American Healthcare REIT) Predictability Rank


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What is American Healthcare REIT Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Healthcare REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

American Healthcare REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

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American Healthcare REIT (American Healthcare REIT) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » American Healthcare REIT Inc (OTCPK:AHTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CVMCA CHCT CHTH GMRE UHT LTC DHC HLTC NHHS STRW WELL VTR PEAK OHI HR SBRA MPW XBRU:AED DOC CTRE
Traded in Other Exchanges
AHR:USA
Address
18191 Von Karman Avenue, Suite 300, Irvine, CA, USA, 92612
Website
https://www.americanhealthcarereit.com
American Healthcare REIT Inc is a healthcare-focused real estate investment trust. It owns a diversified portfolio of clinical healthcare real estate properties, focusing primarily on medical office buildings, skilled nursing facilities, senior housing, hospitals, and other healthcare-related facilities.
Executives
Valerie Richardson director C/O KIMCO REALTY CORP., 333 NEW HYDE PARK ROAD, NEW HYDE PARK NY 11042
Marvin R O'quinn director C/O PREMIER, INC., 13034 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Scott A Estes director WELLTOWER INC., 4500 DORR STREET, TOLEDO OH 43615
Mark E. Foster officer: EVP, General Counsel C/O AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT, INC., 18191 VON KARMAN AVE. #300, IRVINE CA 92612
Gabriel M Willhite officer: EVP, General Counsel C/O GRIFFIN-AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT IV, 18191 VON KARMAN AVE. #300, IRVINE CA 92612
J. Grayson Sanders director 27 LA QUINTA, IRVINE CA 92612
Gerald W Robinson director 18191 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Harold H Greene director C/O GRIFFIN-AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT III, 18191 VON KARMAN AVE, STE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Richard S. Welch director C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 515 S. FLOWER STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Brian J. Flornes director 1613 SUNSET RIDGE DRIVE, LAGUNA BEACH CA 92651
Smith Wilbur H Iii director 18301 VON KARMAN AVENUE, STE 250, IRVINE CA 92612
Brian Peay officer: Chief Financial Officer 18191 VON KARMAN AVENUE #300, IRVINE CA 92612
Jeffrey T Hanson director, officer: CEO & Chairman of the Board 18191 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Lo Cora officer: AGC & Secretary 18191 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Oh Stefan K.l. officer: EVP of Acquisitions 18191 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612

American Healthcare REIT (American Healthcare REIT) Headlines

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