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Agentix (Agentix) Predictability Rank


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What is Agentix Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Agentix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Agentix Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Agentix (Agentix) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Agentix Corp (OTCPK:AGTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CYTO NTRR ISCO VYNT XSNX BLCM HSTO SQZB GLMD NBY OCSE:NOVO B VRTX REGN ASX:CSL SGEN XKRX:207940 MRNA HKSE:02269 XBRU:ARGX BNTX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
32932 Pacific Coast Highway, Suite 14-254, Dana Point, CA, USA, 92629
Website
https://www.agentixcorp.com
Agentix Corp is a biotechnology company. It is engaged in the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics to treat metabolic diseases, peripheral neuropathy, progressive lung disease, and ischemic reperfusion injury. Its principal business objective is to develop both science-driven synthetic and natural cannabinoid therapeutics that address unmet medical needs and continue to drive innovations in the endocannabinoid space.
Executives
Thomas E Puzzo 10 percent owner 4216 NE 70TH STREET, SEATTLE WA 98115
Michael Winterhalter director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO, CFO, Treasurer 32932 PACIFIC COAST HIGHWAY, #14-254, DANA POINT CA 92629
Grays Peak Ventures Llc 10 percent owner 320 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Scott B Stevens director, officer: President and Director 9701 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1000, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Robert K Whalen director, officer: Secretary and Treasurer 32932 PACIFIC COAST HIGHWAY, #14-254, DANA POINT CA 92629
Scott Thomas director 14 MONARCH BEACH PLAZA, SUITE 254, MONARCH BEACH CA 92629
Robert Drust director 14 MONARCH BEACH PLAZA, SUITE 254, MONARCH BEACH CA 92629
Eric Krogius director, 10 percent owner 32932 PACIFIC COAST HIGHWAY, #14-254, DANA POINT CA 92629
Bao Dong Han 10 percent owner 32932 PACIFIC COAST HIGHWAY, #14-254, DANA POINT CA 92629

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