Agios Pharmaceuticals (Agios Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Agios Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Agios Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Agios Pharmaceuticals (Agios Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:AGIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AGIO:Mexico 8AP:Germany 8AP:Germany

Address

88 Sidney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.agios.com

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company with a focus on developing treatments geared towards cancer and rare genetic disorders of metabolism. The company's primary focus is to develop potentially transformative small-molecule medicines. The clinical development strategy for Agios' product candidates includes a precision approach with initial study designs that allow for genetically or biomarker-defined patient populations. The company seeks the potential for proof of concept early in clinical development, along with any potential for accelerated approval.

Executives

Brian Goff	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 100 COLLEGE STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Sarah Gheuens	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 88 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
James William Burns	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, 88 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jacqualyn A Fouse	director	C/O DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, 345 COURT STREET, CORAOPOLIS PA 15108
Tsveta Milanova	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 88 SIDNEY SREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Cecilia Jones	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LOGICBIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 65 HAYDEN AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Kaye I Foster-cheek	director	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Washburn Theodore James Jr.	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 88 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jeffrey D Capello	director	C/O NEOGEN CORP., 620 LESHER PLACE, LANSING MI 48912
Catherine E. Owen	director	1020 STONY HILL ROAD, SUITE 300, YARDLEY PA 19067
David P Schenkein	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Cynthia Smith	director	508 WRANGLER DRIVE, SUITE 100, COPPELL TX 75019
Rahul D. Ballal	director	116 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Richa Poddar	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 88 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Carman Alenson	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	88 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139