AgeX Therapeutics (AgeX Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is AgeX Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AgeX Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AgeX Therapeutics (AgeX Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » AgeX Therapeutics Inc (AMEX:AGE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0X4:Germany 0X4:Germany

Address

1101 Marina Village Parkway, Suite 201, Alameda, CA, USA, 94501

Website

https://www.agexinc.com

AgeX Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company engaged in the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics targeting human aging. The firm through its PureStem and induced Tissue Regeneration (iTR) technologies develops medicines designed to address some of the unsolved problems in aging. Its PureStem-derived cell-based therapeutic candidates in development are AGEX-VASC1, AGEX-BAT1 and AGEX-iTR1547.

Executives

Jean-christophe Renondin	director	505 PARK AVENUE 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Juvenescence Us Corp.	director, 10 percent owner	303A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Joanne M. Hackett	director	C/O AGEX THERAPEUTICS, INC.,, 1101 MARINA VILLAGE PARKWAY, SUITE 201, ALAMEDA CA 94708
Park Andrea Eun Jae	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AGEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 965 ATLANTIC AVE., SUITE 101, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Michael H May	director	965 ATLANTIC AVENUE, SUITE 101, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Michael D West	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	AGEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1101 MARINA VILLAGE PARKWAY, SUITE 201, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Michael H. Mulroy	director	1300 N. KELLOGG DRIVE, SUITE D, ANAHEIM CA 92807
Russell Skibsted	officer: Chief Financial Officer	15 TRANQUILITY PLACE, LADERA RANCH CA 92694
Judith Segall	officer: Corporate Secretary	1010 ATLANTIC AVENUE, SUITE 102, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Hal Sternberg	officer: Vice President-Research	935 PARDEE STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710
Annalisa Jenkins	director	C/O ARDELYX, INC., 34715 ARDENWOOD BLVD, SUITE 100, FREMONT CA 94555
John F Mauldin	director	3204 BEVERLY DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75205
Gregory Bailey	director	4 A CHESHAM STREET, LONDON X0 SW1X8DT
Juvenescence Ltd	10 percent owner	1ST FLOOR, VIKING HOUSE, ST PAULS SQUARE, RAMSEY Y8 IM8 1GB
Nafees Naseer Malik	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AGEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1010 ATLANTIC AVE, STE 102, ALAMEDA CA 94501