What is Alset Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Alset Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Alset (AEI) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4800 Montgomery Lane, Suite 210, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20814
Alset Inc is a diversified holding company engaged through its subsidiaries in the development of EHome communities and other real estate, financial services, digital transformation technologies, biohealth activities, and consumer products with operations in the United States, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, and South Korea. The Company operates in four business segments: real estate, digital transformation technology, biohealth, and other business activities, and it derives a majority of its revenue from the Real Estate segment.
Executives
| Chan Heng Fai Ambrose |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2601 INSLAND PLACE TOWER, 510 KINGS RD N POINT, HONG KONG K3 999999999 |
| Hiu Pan Wong |
director |
RM F, 47/F, TOWER 6, PARK AVENUE,, 18 HOI TING ROAD, TAI KOK TUSI, KOWLOON, HONG KONG F4 999077 |
| Lim Sheng Hon Danny |
director |
4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Hay Kim Ang |
director |
C/O HF ENTERPRISES INC. HAMPDEN SQUARE, 4800 MONTGOMERY LANE SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Anthony S. Chan |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
228 YANJIANG AVE., JIANGAN DIST., BLDG A, WUHAN CITY F4 430010 |
| Robert H Trapp |
other: Former Director |
C/O EVISION INTERNATIONAL INC., 1888 SHERMAN ST. #500, DENVER CO 80203 |
| Shui Yeung Wong |
director |
4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Tung Moe Chan |
officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer |
1601 BLAKE ST, SUITE 310, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Hfe Holdings Ltd |
10 percent owner |
C/O SINGAPORE EDEVELOPMENT LTD. UNIT B, 17 FL GREATMANY CNTR 109-111 QUEENS RD E, WAN CHAI K3 50 |
| Wu William Wai Leung |
director |
C/O DOCUMENT SECURITY SYSTEMS, INC., 200 CANAL VIEW BLVD., SUITE 300, ROCHESTER NY 14624 |
| Tat Keung Wong |
director |
4800 MONTGOMERY LANE SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Lui Wai Leung Alan |
officer: Co-Chief Financial Officer |
10 WINSTEDT ROAD #02-02 BLOCK A, SINGAPORE U0 227977 |
| Rongguo Wei |
officer: Co-Chief Financial Officer |
4800 MONTGOMERY LN #210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Charles Mackenzie |
officer: Chief Development Officer |
4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
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