Adaptimmune Therapeutics (Adaptimmune Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is Adaptimmune Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Adaptimmune Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Adaptimmune Therapeutics (Adaptimmune Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Adaptimmune Therapeutics PLC (NAS:ADAP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

473A:Germany

Address

60 Jubilee Avenue, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxfordshire, GBR, OX14 4RY

Website

https://www.adaptimmune.com

Adaptimmune Therapeutics PLC is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It focused on providing novel cell therapies to patients, particularly in solid tumors. It has developed a comprehensive proprietary platform that enables it to identify cancer targets, find and genetically engineer T-cell receptors, and produce TCR therapeutic candidates for administration to patients. Its programs include MAGE-A10 T-cell therapy, non-small cell lung cancer, AFP SPEAR T-cell, MAGE-A4 SPEAR T-cell therapy and NY-ESO SPEAR T-cell for multiple cancer types.

Executives

Elliot Norry	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
Bertrand William C Jr	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
John Lunger	officer: Chief Patient Supply Officer	C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
Adrian Rawcliffe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	440 SOUTH BROAD STREET, UNIT 1906, PHILADELPHIA PA 19146
Kristen Hege	director	500 FORBES BLVD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94070
Garry E Menzel	director	C/O REGULUS THERAPEUTICS INC., 3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Priti Hegde	director	TCR2 THERAPEUTICS INC., 100 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 710, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Andrew R Allen	director	2525 28TH STREET, SUITE 200, BOULDER CO 80301
Cintia Piccina	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	60 JUBILEE AVENUE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 X0 OX14 4R
Gavin Wood	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
Joanna Elizabeth Brewer	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	60 JUBILEE AVENUE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
Helena Katrina Tayton-martin	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
David M Mott	director	1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Lawrence M Alleva	director	1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
James Noble	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX