Enact Holdings (Enact Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Enact Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Enact Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Enact Holdings (Enact Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Enact Holdings Inc (NAS:ACT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8325 Six Forks Road, Raleigh, NC, USA, 27615

Website

https://www.enactmi.com

Enact Holdings Inc is a private mortgage insurance company serving the United States housing finance market. The company is engaged in the business of writing and assuming residential mortgage guaranty insurance. Its product offerings include Primary mortgage insurance, which provides protection on individual loans at specified coverage percentages. Primary mortgage insurance is placed on individual loans at the time of origination and is typically delivered to the company on a loan-by-loan basis, and Pool mortgage insurance provides coverage on a finite set of individual loans identified by the pool policy.

Executives

Genworth Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	6620 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Jerome T Upton	director	GENWORTH FINANCIAL, INC., 6620 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Michael A Bless	director	C/O ROCKWELL INTERNATIONAL INC, 777 E. WISCONSIN AVE #1400, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Brian Gould	officer: EVP & Chief Operations Officer	8325 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27615
Rohit Gupta	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O GENWORTH FINANCIAL, INC., 6620 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Sheehan Daniel J Iv	director	6620 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Hardin Dean Mitchell	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	8325 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27615
Michael Derstine	officer: EVP and Chief Risk Officer	8325 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27615
Anne G Waleski	director	1508 WEST AVENUE, RICHMOND VA 23220
Westley V Thompson	director	THE PHOENIX COMPANIES, INC., ONE AMERICAN ROW, HARTFORD CT 06102
Debra Still	director	520 MADISON AVE, 32ND FL, C/O CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORPORATION, NEW YORK NY 10022
John D Fisk	director	C/O AGNC INVESTMENT CORP., 7373 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Restrepo Robert P Jr	director
Dominic James Addesso	director, other: Chairperson of the Board	477 MARTINSVILLE ROAD, LIBERTY CORNER NJ 07938
Thomas J Mcinerney	director	6620 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230