Acrivon Therapeutics (Acrivon Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Acrivon Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Acrivon Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Acrivon Therapeutics (Acrivon Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Acrivon Therapeutics Inc (NAS:ACRV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

480 Arsenal Way, Suite 100, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472

Website

https://www.acrivon.com

Acrivon Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing oncology medicines that the Company matches to patients whose tumors are predicted to be sensitive to each specific medicine by utilizing its proteomics-based patient responder identification platform. The company's pipeline includes the Phase 2 lead program, ACR-368, referred to as prexasertib, a targeted oncology asset, as well as preclinical stage pipeline programs targeting critical nodes in the DNA Damage Response and cell cycle regulation pathways, including WEE1, a protein kinase, and PKMYT1, a closely related protein serine/threonine kinase.

Executives

Mary Miller	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Peter Blume-jensen	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ACRIVON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 100, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Chione Ltd	10 percent owner	SIMOU MENARDOU 8, RIA COURT 8, OFFICE 101, 6015, LARNACA G4 CY
Charles M Baum	director	C/O MIRATI THERAPEUTICS INC., 9393 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Rasmus Holm-jorgensen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACRIVON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 100, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Eric Devroe	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ACRIVON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 100, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Joseph Edelman	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Perceptive Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Anastasis Nikolaou	10 percent owner	C/O CHIONE LTD/ SIMOU MENARDOU 5, KIFISIA COURT,OFFICE 225, LARNACA G4 6015
Michael John Tomsicek	director	28 OVERLOOK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Erick Gamelin	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACRIVON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 100, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Kristina Masson	director, officer: EVP - Business Operations	C/O ACRIVON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 100, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Ra Capital Nexus Fund Ii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116