Aclaris Therapeutics (Aclaris Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Aclaris Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aclaris Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aclaris Therapeutics (Aclaris Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Aclaris Therapeutics Inc (NAS:ACRS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8AT:Germany

Address

640 Lee Road, Suite 200, Wayne, PA, USA, 19087

Website

https://www.aclaristx.com

Aclaris Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that operates in the United States. It focuses on developing novel drug candidates for immuno-inflammatory diseases. The company operates in two segments: therapeutics and contract research. The therapeutics segment is focused on identifying and developing innovative therapies to address significant unmet needs for immuno-inflammatory diseases. The contract research segment earns revenue from the provision of laboratory services. The majority of its revenue comes from the contract research segment, which provides laboratory services. Its drug candidates under development are Zunsemetinib, which is an Oral MK2 Inhibitor; ATI-2138 is an ITJ Inhibitor; and ATI-1777.

Executives

Joseph Monahan	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 640 LEE ROAD, SUITE 200, WAYNE PA 19087
Kevin Balthaser	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 640 LEE ROAD, SUITE 200, WAYNE PA 19087
James Loerop	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 640 LEE ROAD, SUITE 200, WAYNE PA 19087
Douglas J. Manion	officer: Pres and COO	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 640 LEE ROAD, SUITE 200, WAYNE PA 19087
Neal Walker	director, officer: President and CEO	15 NEW ENGLAND EXECUTIVE PARK, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Andrew N Schiff	director	PLANET ZANETT INC, 135 E 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gail Cawkwell	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 640 LEE ROAD, SUITE 200, WAYNE PA 19087
Frank Ruffo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 101 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 400, MALVERN PA 19355
David N. Gordon	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 101 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 400, MALVERN PA 19355
Kamil Ali-jackson	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 101 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 400, MALVERN PA 19355
James B. Tananbaum	10 percent owner	3052 PACIFIC AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94115
Foresite Capital Management Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	900 LARKSPUR LANDING CIRCLE, SUITE 150, LARKSPUR CA 94939
Foresite Capital Fund Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Foresite Capital Fund Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Foresite Capital Management Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	900 LARKSPUR LANDING CIRCLE, SUITE 150, LARKSPUR CA 94939