Absci (ABSI) Predictability Rank

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What is Absci Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Absci Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Absci (ABSI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Absci Corp (NAS:ABSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

18105 SE Mill Plain Boulevard, Vancouver, WA, USA, 98683

Website

https://www.absci.com

Absci Corp is the Artificial intelligence powered synthetic biology company unlocking the potential of proteins as the next generation of therapeutics. It enables the creation of novel biologics by unifying biologic drug discovery and cell line development into one simultaneous process.

Executives

Frans Van Houten	director	18105 SE MILL PLAIN BLVD, VANCOUVER WA 98683
Daniel A Rabinovitsj	director	400 W CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
Andreas Busch	director	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Sarah Korman	officer: General Counsel	18105 SE MILL PLAIN BLVD, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Todd Bedrick	officer: VP, CCPAO	18105 SE MILL PLAIN BLVD, VANCOUVER WA 98683
Joseph Sirosh	director	C/O COMPASS, INC., 155 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Sean Mcclain	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and Chief Executive	18105 SE MILL PLAIN BLVD, SUITE 350, VANCOUVER WA 98683
Zachariah Jonasson	director	18105 SE MILL PLAIN BLVD, VANCOUVER WA 98683
Eli Casdin	director, 10 percent owner	1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1140, NEW YORK NY 10019
Casdin Partners Master Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	WALKER HOUSE, 87 MARY STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9001
Redmile Group, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Karen K Mcginnis	director	INSIGHT ENTERPRISES INC, 1305 WEST AUTO DRIVE, TEMPE AZ 85284
Redmile Biopharma Investments Ii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	LETTERMAN DIGITAL ARTS CENTER, ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, SUITE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Phoenix General Partner Ii Llc	10 percent owner	1700 S. EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 335, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Nikhil Goel	officer: Chief Business Officer	101 E. 6TH STREET, SUITE 350, VANCOUVER WA 98660