Aadi Bioscience (Aadi Bioscience) Predictability Rank

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What is Aadi Bioscience Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aadi Bioscience Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aadi Bioscience (Aadi Bioscience) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Aadi Bioscience Inc (NAS:AADI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3350:Germany

Address

17383 Sunset Boulevard, Suite A250, Pacific Palisades, CA, USA, 90272

Website

https://www.aadibio.com

Aadi Bioscience Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing precision therapies for genetically-defined cancers. Aadi's primary goal is to bring transformational therapies to cancer patients with mTOR pathway driver alterations such as alterations in TSC1 or TSC2 genes, where other mTOR inhibitors have not or cannot be effectively exploited due to problems of pharmacology, effective drug delivery, safety, or effective targeting to the disease site. It has one operating segment, which is the business of developing and commercializing proprietary therapeutic. Geographically, it is located in the United States.

Executives

Neil Desai	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O AADI BIOSCIENCE, INC., 17383 SUNSET BLVD., SUITE A250, PACIFIC PALISADES CA 90272
David James Lennon	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O AADI BIOSCIENCE, INC., 17383 SUNSET BLVD, SUITE A250, PACIFIC PALISADES CA 90272
Mohammad Hirmand	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Scott M. Giacobello	officer: Chief Financial Officer	SOVEREIGN HOUSE, VISION PARK, HISTON, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB24 9BZ
Lorettta M Itri	officer: Chief Medical Officer
Brendan Delaney	officer: Chief Operating Officer	300 THE AMERICAN WAY, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Emma Reeve	director	C/O PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 195 WEST STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Karin M. Hehenberger	director	C/O CORONADO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 15 NEW ENGLAND EXECUTIVE PARK, BURLINGTON CO 01803
Richard E Maroun	director	C/O AADI BIOSCIENCE, INC., 17383 SUNSET BLVD., SUITE A250, PACIFIC PALISADES CA 90272
Caley Castelein	director	THOM. WEISEL HEALTHCARE VENTURES, ONE MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Lance E Thibault	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Behzad Aghazadeh	director, other: See Remarks	C/O AVORO CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC, 110 GREENE STREET, SUITE 800, NEW YORK NY 10012
Venbio Select Advisor Llc	director, other: See Remarks	110 GREENE STREET, SUITE 800, NEW YORK NY 10012
Anupam Dalal	director	88 KEARNY STREET, SUITE 1800, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Avoro Ventures Llc	director, other: See Remarks	110 GREEN STREET, SUITE 800, NEW YORK NY 10012