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Airtel Africa (LSE:AAF) Beneish M-Score : -3.39 (As of May. 08, 2024)


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What is Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.39 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LSE:AAF' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.42   Med: -2.87   Max: -0.7
Current: -3.39

During the past 7 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Airtel Africa was -0.70. The lowest was -3.42. And the median was -2.87.


Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score Chart

Airtel Africa Annual Data
Trend Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21 Mar22 Mar23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial - - -3.14 -2.66 -2.76

Airtel Africa Quarterly Data
Sep18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.87 -2.87 -2.76 -3.42 -3.39

Competitive Comparison of Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score

For the Telecom Services subindustry, Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Telecommunication Services Industry

For the Telecommunication Services industry and Communication Services sector, Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Airtel Africa for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0102+0.528 * 1.0144+0.404 * 0.9885+0.892 * 1.0724+0.115 * 0.7683
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0006+4.679 * -0.200608-0.327 * 1.0724
=-3.39

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Sep23) TTM:Last Year (Sep22) TTM:
Total Receivables was £130 Mil.
Revenue was 1006.768 + 1090.584 + 1104.984 + 1108.35 = £4,311 Mil.
Gross Profit was 715.08 + 747.648 + 508.408 + 750.394 = £2,722 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £1,690 Mil.
Total Assets was £8,078 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £2,742 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £691 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £205 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £3,011 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £1,925 Mil.
Net Income was 92.92 + -134.64 + 160.68 + 141.212 = £260 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = £0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 437.128 + 459.36 + 421.064 + 563.206 = £1,881 Mil.
Total Receivables was £120 Mil.
Revenue was 1154.964 + 1020.684 + 927.498 + 916.688 = £4,020 Mil.
Gross Profit was 786.753 + 701.568 + 444.015 + 642.208 = £2,575 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £1,551 Mil.
Total Assets was £8,993 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £3,336 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £610 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £191 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £2,748 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £2,376 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(130.088 / 4310.686) / (120.088 / 4019.834)
=0.030178 / 0.029874
=1.0102

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2574.544 / 4019.834) / (2721.53 / 4310.686)
=0.64046 / 0.631345
=1.0144

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1689.528 + 2742.352) / 8078.384) / (1 - (1550.548 + 3335.974) / 8993.355)
=0.45139 / 0.456652
=0.9885

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4310.686 / 4019.834
=1.0724

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(610.342 / (610.342 + 3335.974)) / (691.211 / (691.211 + 2742.352))
=0.154661 / 0.20131
=0.7683

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(205.246 / 4310.686) / (191.282 / 4019.834)
=0.047613 / 0.047585
=1.0006

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1925.464 + 3010.608) / 8078.384) / ((2376.153 + 2747.896) / 8993.355)
=0.611022 / 0.569759
=1.0724

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(260.172 - 0 - 1880.758) / 8078.384
=-0.200608

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Airtel Africa has a M-score of -3.39 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Airtel Africa (LSE:AAF) Business Description

Address
53/54 Grosvenor Street, First Floor, London, GBR, W1K 3HU
Airtel Africa PLC is engaged in providing affordable and innovative mobile services. The company's segment includes Nigeria mobile services; East Africa mobile services; Francophone Africa mobile services; Mobile money and others. It generates maximum revenue from the Nigeria mobile services segment. Nigeria mobile services segment comprising of mobile service operations in Nigeria.

Airtel Africa (LSE:AAF) Headlines

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