Alcoa Beneish M-Score Historical Data
The historical data trend for Alcoa's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Alcoa Beneish M-Score Chart
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Alcoa Annual Data
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Trend |
Dec06 |
Dec07 |
Dec08 |
Dec09 |
Dec10 |
Dec11 |
Dec12 |
Dec13 |
Dec14 |
Dec15 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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-2.61 |
-2.60 |
-2.85 |
-2.52 |
-2.87 |
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Alcoa Quarterly Data
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Dec11 |
Mar12 |
Jun12 |
Sep12 |
Dec12 |
Mar13 |
Jun13 |
Sep13 |
Dec13 |
Mar14 |
Jun14 |
Sep14 |
Dec14 |
Mar15 |
Jun15 |
Sep15 |
Dec15 |
Mar16 |
Jun16 |
Sep16 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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-2.99 |
-2.87 |
-2.59 |
-2.64 |
-2.59 |
Competitive Comparison of Alcoa's Beneish M-Score
For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alcoa's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Beneish M-Score falls into.
Alcoa Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Alcoa for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.0847 | + | 0.528 * 1.152 | + | 0.404 * 0.956 | + | 0.892 * 0.8963 | + | 0.115 * 1.0275 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 1.2539 | + | 4.679 * -0.054137 | - | 0.327 * 1.0294 |
| = | -2.74 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Sep16) TTM: | Last Year (Sep15) TTM: |
Total Receivables was €1,901 Mil.
Revenue was 4644.783 + 4712.55 + 4442.406 + 4814.91 = €18,615 Mil.
Gross Profit was 887.436 + 960.31 + 813.588 + 772.038 = €3,433 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €8,347 Mil.
Total Assets was €33,366 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €13,474 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €1,132 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €974 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €4,901 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €8,465 Mil.
Net Income was 147.906 + 120.15 + 14.368 + -643.518 = €-361 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 83.754 + 28.48 + -34.124 + 391.068 = €469 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 272.646 + 295.48 + -386.14 + 794.07 = €976 Mil.
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Total Receivables was €1,955 Mil.
Revenue was 4965.543 + 5254.227 + 5376.756 + 5171.747 = €20,768 Mil.
Gross Profit was 903.474 + 1099.494 + 1271.424 + 1138.644 = €4,413 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €7,655 Mil.
Total Assets was €32,599 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €13,144 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €1,138 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €866 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €4,586 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €8,100 Mil.
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1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (1900.503 / 18614.649) | / | (1954.854 / 20768.273) |
| = | 0.102097 | / | 0.094127 |
| | = | 1.0847 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (4413.036 / 20768.273) | / | (3433.372 / 18614.649) |
| = | 0.212489 | / | 0.184445 |
| | = | 1.152 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (8346.888 + 13473.702) / 33366.168) | / | (1 - (7655.472 + 13144.032) / 32599.017) |
| = | 0.346026 | / | 0.361959 |
| | = | 0.956 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 18614.649 | / | 20768.273 |
| | = | 0.8963 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (1137.558 / (1137.558 + 13144.032)) | / | (1132.286 / (1132.286 + 13473.702)) |
| = | 0.079652 | / | 0.077522 |
| | = | 1.0275 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (973.561 / 18614.649) | / | (866.284 / 20768.273) |
| = | 0.052301 | / | 0.041712 |
| | = | 1.2539 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((8465.391 + 4900.5) / 33366.168) | / | ((8100.081 + 4585.977) / 32599.017) |
| = | 0.400582 | / | 0.389155 |
| | = | 1.0294 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (-361.094 - 469.178 | - | 976.056) | / | 33366.168 |
| | = | -0.054137 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Alcoa has a M-score of -2.74 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Alcoa (FRA:ALU2) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Arconic Inc, formerly known as Alcoa Inc was first incorporated as the Pittsburgh Reduction Company on October 1, 1888. The Company is engaged in manufacturing and engineering lightweight metals. Its products include aluminum, titanium, and nickel, used in aerospace, automotive, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, consumer electronics, and industrial applications. The Company is also engaged in the production and management of aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active participation in all aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. It has investments and operating activities in, among others, Australia, Brazil, China, Guinea, Iceland, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. The Company operates in segments including Global Rolled Products, Engineered Products and Solutions, and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The Company's Global Rolled Products segment represents its midstream operations. The Engineered Products and Solutions segment represents a portion of the Company's downstream operations. Its downstream portfolio includes two segments Engineered Products and Solutions and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The Engineered Products and Solutions consist of Alcoa Titanium & Engineered Products; Alcoa Fastening Systems & Rings; Alcoa Forgings and Extrusions; and Alcoa Power and Propulsion. The Company's Transportation and Construction Solutions segment represents a portion of its downstream operations. The raw materials used includes bauxite, alloying materials, caustic soda, alumina, electricity, aluminum fluoride, fuel oil, calcined petroleum coke, lime (CaO), cathode blocks, natural gas, electricity, liquid pitch, natural gas, titanium alloys, titanium sponge and resin. The Company's trademark products include Howmet metal castings, Huck fasteners, Kawneer building panels and Dura-Bright wheels with easy-clean surface treatments.
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