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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -2.54 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The historical rank and industry rank for Air Lease's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Air Lease was -2.29. The lowest was -2.64. And the median was -2.49.
The historical data trend for Air Lease's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Air Lease Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec14 | Dec15 | Dec16 | Dec17 | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | |||||||||||
Beneish M-Score | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -2.29 | -2.49 | -2.57 | -2.49 | -2.37 |
Air Lease Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | Jun24 | |
Beneish M-Score | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -2.33 | -2.40 | -2.37 | -2.30 | -2.54 |
For the Rental & Leasing Services subindustry, Air Lease's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Air Lease's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Air Lease's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Air Lease for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
= | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1 | + | 0.528 * 1.0511 | + | 0.404 * 0.9913 | + | 0.892 * 1.0949 | + | 0.115 * 0.9771 | |
- | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI | |||||||
- | 0.172 * 0.9919 | + | 4.679 * -0.037198 | - | 0.327 * 0.9716 | |||||||
= | -2.54 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
This Year (Jun24) TTM: | Last Year (Jun23) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $0 Mil. Revenue was 667.288 + 663.31 + 716.568 + 659.364 = $2,707 Mil. Gross Profit was 195.302 + 204.455 + 274.1 + 230.202 = $904 Mil. Total Current Assets was $456 Mil. Total Assets was $31,018 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $27,921 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,100 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $223 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $1,046 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $19,679 Mil. Net Income was 102.946 + 107.866 + 221.051 + 132.45 = $564 Mil. Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 67.022 + 0 = $67 Mil. Cash Flow from Operations was 413.813 + 371.33 + 464.574 + 401.407 = $1,651 Mil. |
Total Receivables was $0 Mil. Revenue was 672.904 + 636.142 + 601.61 + 561.334 = $2,472 Mil. Gross Profit was 232.144 + 224.849 + 214.447 + 196.483 = $868 Mil. Total Current Assets was $580 Mil. Total Assets was $29,758 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $26,621 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,024 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $205 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $1,569 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $18,896 Mil. |
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
= | (0 / 2706.53) | / | (0 / 2471.99) | |
= | 0 | / | 0 | |
= | 1 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
= | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) | |
= | (867.923 / 2471.99) | / | (904.059 / 2706.53) | |
= | 0.351103 | / | 0.334029 | |
= | 1.0511 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | (1 - (455.656 + 27921.265) / 31018.377) | / | (1 - (580.435 + 26621.038) / 29757.822) | |
= | 0.085158 | / | 0.085905 | |
= | 0.9913 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
= | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 | |
= | 2706.53 | / | 2471.99 | |
= | 1.0949 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
= | (1023.63 / (1023.63 + 26621.038)) | / | (1099.748 / (1099.748 + 27921.265)) | |
= | 0.037028 | / | 0.037895 | |
= | 0.9771 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
= | (222.86 / 2706.53) | / | (205.205 / 2471.99) | |
= | 0.082342 | / | 0.083012 | |
= | 0.9919 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | ((19679.063 + 1045.99) / 31018.377) | / | ((18895.793 + 1568.925) / 29757.822) | |
= | 0.668154 | / | 0.687709 | |
= | 0.9716 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
= | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t | |
= | (564.313 - 67.022 | - | 1651.124) | / | 31018.377 | |
= | -0.037198 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Air Lease has a M-score of -2.54 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Air Lease's Beneish M-Score provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Gregory B Willis | officer: SVP FINANCE AND CFO | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 600N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Alex A Khatibi | officer: EVP | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Grant A Levy | officer: EVP, GENL. COUNSEL & SECRETARY | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Kishore Korde | officer: EVP, Marketing | 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
John L Plueger | director, officer: PRESIDENT AND COO | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Carol Hyland Forsyte | officer: EVP, GC, Corp Secretary & CCO | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Yvette Hollingsworth Clark | director | C/O 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Steven F Udvar-hazy | director, officer: Chairman and CEO | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Jie Chen | officer: EVP & MANAGING DIRECTOR, ASIA | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Marshall O Larsen | director | 870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
Cheryl Gordon Krongard | director | LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
Susan Mccaw | director | LIONSGATE, 2700 COLORADO AVENUE, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
Marc H Baer | other: EVP | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
John D Poerschke | officer: SVP | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
Ian M Saines | director | C/O AIR LEASE CORPORATION, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1000N, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
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