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AGO (Assured Guaranty) Beneish M-Score : -2.11 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Assured Guaranty Beneish M-Score?

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.11 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Assured Guaranty's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

AGO' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.62   Med: -2.07   Max: -1.7
Current: -2.11

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Assured Guaranty was -1.70. The lowest was -2.62. And the median was -2.07.


Assured Guaranty Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Assured Guaranty for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.133+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.3838+0.892 * 0.9256+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.7967+4.679 * 0.055592-0.327 * 1.4099
=-2.11

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun24) TTM:Last Year (Jun23) TTM:
Total Receivables was $1,765.0 Mil.
Revenue was 192 + 226 + 282 + 146 = $846.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 192 + 226 + 282 + 146 = $846.0 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $12,088.0 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $378.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $0.0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $205.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,696.0 Mil.
Net Income was 78 + 109 + 376 + 157 = $720.0 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 9 + 1 + 23 + 6 = $39.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 58 + -74 + 203 + -178 = $9.0 Mil.
Total Receivables was $1,683.0 Mil.
Revenue was 357 + 230 + 305 + 22 = $914.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 357 + 230 + 305 + 22 = $914.0 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $16,852.0 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $5,055.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $0.0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $278.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,677.0 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1765 / 846) / (1683 / 914)
=2.086288 / 1.841357
=1.133

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(914 / 914) / (846 / 846)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 378) / 12088) / (1 - (0 + 5055) / 16852)
=0.968729 / 0.700036
=1.3838

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=846 / 914
=0.9256

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 5055)) / (0 / (0 + 378))
=0 / 0
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(205 / 846) / (278 / 914)
=0.242317 / 0.304158
=0.7967

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1696 + 0) / 12088) / ((1677 + 0) / 16852)
=0.140304 / 0.099513
=1.4099

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(720 - 39 - 9) / 12088
=0.055592

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Assured Guaranty has a M-score of -2.11 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Assured Guaranty Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Assured Guaranty Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Woodbourne Avenue, Hamilton, BMU, HM 08
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit protection products to the United States and international public finance and structured finance markets, and manages assets across collateralized loan obligations as well as opportunity funds and liquid funds that build on its corporate credit, asset-based finance, municipal and healthcare experience. The company is operating in two segments Insurance segment and the Asset Management segment. The majority of the revenue earned by the company from the Insurance segment.
Executives
Dominic Frederico director, officer: Deputy Chairman/President/CEO ACE LTD, ACE BLDG 30 WOODBOURNE AVE HAMILTON BER
Robert Bailenson officer: Chief Accounting Officer ASSURED GUARANTY LTD., 30 WOODBOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM08
Laura Bieling officer: Chief Accounting Officer* 30 WOODBOURNE AVE., 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08
G Lawrence Buhl director 30 WOODBOURNE AVE, C/O ASSURED GUARANTY LTD, HAMILTON BERMUDA D0 0000
Stephen Donnarumma officer: Chief Credit Officer 30 WOODOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM08
Jorge A. Gana officer: Chief Risk Officer 30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08
Howard Albert officer: Chief Risk Officer 31 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
David A. Buzen officer: Head of Asset Management* 850 3RD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Holly Horn officer: Chief Surveillance Officer 30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08
Brewer Russell B. Ii officer: Chief Surveillance Officer 31 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Shea Courtney C. director 1555 N. ASTOR STREET, APARTMENT 9W, CHICAGO IL 60610
Michelle Mccloskey director C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN LP, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Lorin Radtke director 30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08
Thomas W Jones director ALTRIA GROUP INC, 6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Andrew T Feldstein officer: Chief Investment Officer 280 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017