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Serco Group (Serco Group) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $3.80 (As of May. 04, 2024)


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What is Serco Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-05-04), Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $3.80. The stock price of Serco Group is $2.295. Therefore, Serco Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.6.

The historical rank and industry rank for Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

SCGPY' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.54   Med: 1.78   Max: 19.12
Current: 0.6

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Serco Group was 19.12. The lowest was 0.54. And the median was 1.78.

SCGPY's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
71.02% of 666 companies
in the Business Services industry
Industry Median: 0.945 vs SCGPY: 0.60

Serco Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Serco Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Serco Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.14 0.67 1.64 2.52 3.76

Serco Group Semi-Annual Data
Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.64 - 2.52 - 3.76

Competitive Comparison of Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Specialty Business Services subindustry, Serco Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Serco Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Business Services Industry

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Serco Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Serco Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Serco Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Serco Group's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $221.35.

Serco Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*221.34785714286+1308.861*0.8)/1128.600
=3.84

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Serco Group  (OTCPK:SCGPY) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Serco Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=2.295/3.8427301627955
=0.60

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Serco Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Serco Group (Serco Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
16 Bartley Wood Business Park, Serco House, Bartley Way, Hook, Hampshire, GBR, RG27 9UY
Serco Group PLC helps governments and public-sector bodies deliver public services. The company generates revenue from four divisions. The U.K. & Europe local and regional government division provides hospital management welfare, business support operations, and defense services in the U.K. and Europe. The Americas division provides professional, defense, technology, and management services to U.S. and Canadian governments. The Asia-Pacific segment provides frontline services, defense, citizen services in Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong. The Middle East division provides transport, defense, and health services in the Middle East. The company generates most of its revenue from the U.K. & Europe division.

Serco Group (Serco Group) Headlines