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HCC (Warrior Met Coal) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $111.77 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Warrior Met Coal Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-10-31), Warrior Met Coal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $111.77. The stock price of Warrior Met Coal is $63.13. Therefore, Warrior Met Coal's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.6.

The historical rank and industry rank for Warrior Met Coal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

HCC' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.3   Med: 0.45   Max: 0.58
Current: 0.56

During the past 9 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Warrior Met Coal was 0.58. The lowest was 0.30. And the median was 0.45.

HCC's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
63.33% of 480 companies
in the Steel industry
Industry Median: 0.68 vs HCC: 0.56

Warrior Met Coal Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Warrior Met Coal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Warrior Met Coal Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Warrior Met Coal Annual Data
Trend Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only - - 57.14 86.71 105.47

Warrior Met Coal Quarterly Data
Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 98.48 105.47 110.56 117.58 111.77

Competitive Comparison of Warrior Met Coal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Coking Coal subindustry, Warrior Met Coal's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Warrior Met Coal's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Steel Industry

For the Steel industry and Basic Materials sector, Warrior Met Coal's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Warrior Met Coal's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Warrior Met Coal Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Warrior Met Coal's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $281.69.

Warrior Met Coal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Sep24)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*281.68912+2086.827*0.8)/52.394
=111.77

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Warrior Met Coal  (NYSE:HCC) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Warrior Met Coal's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=63.13/111.77060983878
=0.56

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Warrior Met Coal Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Warrior Met Coal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Warrior Met Coal Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
16243 Highway 216, Brookwood, AL, USA, 35444
Warrior Met Coal Inc is a U.S based company. It produces and exports of met coal that operates underground mines in Alabama. The company sells to steels manufacturers in Europe, Asia, and South America. Its mining operations consist of two underground met coal mines in Southern Appalachia's coal seam and other surface met and thermal coal mines. The Company generates ancillary revenues from the sale of natural gas extracted as a byproduct from the underground coal mines and royalty revenues from leased properties.
Executives
Walter J Scheller director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER 16243 HIGHWAY 216, BIRMINGHAM AL 35444
Kelli K. Gant officer: See Remarks C/O WARRIOR MET COAL, LLC, 16243 HIGHWAY 216, BROOKWOOD AL 35444
Alan H Schumacher director C/O QUALITY DISTRIBUTION, INC., 4041 PARK OAKS BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, TAMPA FL 33610
Stephen D. Williams director C/O WARRIOR MET COAL, LLC, 16243 HIGHWAY 216, BROOK AL 35444
Brian M Chopin officer: See Remarks 3000 RIVERCHASE GALLERIA, SUITE #1700, BIRMINGHAM AL 35244
Lisa M. Schnorr director C/O GRAHAM CORPORATION, 20 FLORENCE AVENUE, BATAVIA NY 14020
Jack K. Richardson officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER C/O WARRIOR MET COAL, LLC, 16243 HIGHWAY 216, BROOKWOOD AL 35444
Charles Lussier officer: Senior VP - Sales & Marketing 16243 HIGHWAY 216, BROOKWOOD AL 35444
Dale W Boyles officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Ana B Amicarella director 1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Apollo Special Opportunities Managed Account Lp 10 percent owner ONE MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 201, PURCHASE NY 10577
Apollo Svf Management, L.p. 10 percent owner TWO MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Svf Management Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Steamboat Credit Opportunities Intermediate Fund Lp 10 percent owner C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154