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LEN (Lennar) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $433.47 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Lennar Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-10-31), Lennar's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $433.47.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Lennar's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Lennar is 60.71%.

The industry rank for Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

LEN's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
82.35% of 17 companies
in the Homebuilding & Construction industry
Industry Median: 0.68 vs LEN: 0.39

Lennar Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Lennar Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Lennar Annual Data
Trend Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Nov19 Nov20 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 623.99 341.05 384.15 562.91

Lennar Quarterly Data
Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22 Feb23 May23 Aug23 Nov23 Feb24 May24 Aug24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 570.47 562.91 489.94 443.53 477.30

Competitive Comparison of Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Residential Construction subindustry, Lennar's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Lennar's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Homebuilding & Construction Industry

For the Homebuilding & Construction industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Lennar's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Lennar's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Lennar Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.28%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Lennar's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 27.90%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $13.871.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=13.871*31.2501
=433.47

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(433.47-170.30)/433.47
=60.71 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Lennar  (NYSE:LEN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Lennar Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Lennar Business Description

Address
5505 Waterford District Drive, Miami, FL, USA, 33126
Lennar is one of the largest public homebuilders in the United States. The company's homebuilding operations target first-time, move-up, and active adult homebuyers mainly under the Lennar brand name. Lennar's financial-services segment provides mortgage financing and related services to its homebuyers. Miami-based Lennar is also involved in multifamily and single-family for rent construction and has invested in numerous housing-related technology startups.
Executives
Amy Banse director 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Diane J Bessette officer: VP/CFO/Treasurer LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172
Mark Sustana officer: VP/General Counsel/Secretary LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172
David M Collins officer: VP & Controller LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVENUE STE 400, MIAMI FL 33172
Jeffrey Joseph Mccall officer: Executive Vice President 26 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92618
Dacona Smith director 5505 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Serena Wolfe director ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jonathan M Jaffe director, officer: Vice President LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172
Scott D Stowell director
Irving Bolotin director LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172
Steven L Gerard director P.O. BOX 554, MILWAUKEE WI 53201-0554
Armando J Olivera director C/O FLUOR CORPORATION, 6700 LAS COLINAS BLVD, IRVING TX 75039
Sherrill W Hudson director 201 SOUTH BISCAYNE BOULEVARD, 34TH FLOOR, MIAMI CENTER, MIAMI FL 33131
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld director 14 WALL ST 13TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10005
Theron I Gilliam director GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084