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As of today (2024-10-31), Lennar's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $433.47.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Lennar's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.
Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Lennar is 60.71%.
The industry rank for Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:
The historical data trend for Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Lennar Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Nov14 | Nov15 | Nov16 | Nov17 | Nov18 | Nov19 | Nov20 | Nov21 | Nov22 | Nov23 | |||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | - | 623.99 | 341.05 | 384.15 | 562.91 |
Lennar Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Nov19 | Feb20 | May20 | Aug20 | Nov20 | Feb21 | May21 | Aug21 | Nov21 | Feb22 | May22 | Aug22 | Nov22 | Feb23 | May23 | Aug23 | Nov23 | Feb24 | May24 | Aug24 | |
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 570.47 | 562.91 | 489.94 | 443.53 | 477.30 |
For the Residential Construction subindustry, Lennar's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Homebuilding & Construction industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Lennar's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Lennar's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.28%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Lennar's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past
5 years was 27.90%,
which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $13.871.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | = | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | {[(1+g1)/(1+d) | + | (1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10] |
+ | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10 | * | [(1+g2)/(1+d) | + | (1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]} |
set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | = | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | {[x | + | x^2 | + | ... | + | x^10] | + | x^10 | * | [y | + | y^2 | + | ... | + | y^10]} |
= | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | [x | * | (1-x^10) | / | (1-x) | + | x^10 | * | y | * | (1-y^10) | / | (1-y)] | |||||
= | 13.871 | * | 31.2501 | |||||||||||||||||
= | 433.47 |
Margin of Safety (FCF Based) | = | (Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | - | Current Price) | / | Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) |
= | (433.47 | - | 170.30) | / | 433.47 | |
= | 60.71 % |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Lennar (NYSE:LEN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about the DCF model:
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings powerYou can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lennar's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Amy Banse | director | 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110 |
Diane J Bessette | officer: VP/CFO/Treasurer | LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172 |
Mark Sustana | officer: VP/General Counsel/Secretary | LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172 |
David M Collins | officer: VP & Controller | LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVENUE STE 400, MIAMI FL 33172 |
Jeffrey Joseph Mccall | officer: Executive Vice President | 26 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92618 |
Dacona Smith | director | 5505 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126 |
Serena Wolfe | director | ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
Jonathan M Jaffe | director, officer: Vice President | LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172 |
Scott D Stowell | director | |
Irving Bolotin | director | LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172 |
Steven L Gerard | director | P.O. BOX 554, MILWAUKEE WI 53201-0554 |
Armando J Olivera | director | C/O FLUOR CORPORATION, 6700 LAS COLINAS BLVD, IRVING TX 75039 |
Sherrill W Hudson | director | 201 SOUTH BISCAYNE BOULEVARD, 34TH FLOOR, MIAMI CENTER, MIAMI FL 33131 |
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld | director | 14 WALL ST 13TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10005 |
Theron I Gilliam | director | GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084 |
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