Service Properties Trust (Service Properties Trust) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $-24.59 (As of May. 24, 2024)

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What is Service Properties Trust Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-05-24), Service Properties Trust's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $-24.59.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Service Properties Trust's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Service Properties Trust is N/A.

The historical rank and industry rank for Service Properties Trust's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Service Properties Trust was 1.96. The lowest was 0.00. And the median was 1.29.

SVC's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked ^*
in the REITs industry.
Industry Median: 1.415
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

Service Properties Trust Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Service Properties Trust's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Service Properties Trust Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Service Properties Trust Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

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Service Properties Trust Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Service Properties Trust's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the REIT - Hotel & Motel subindustry, Service Properties Trust's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Service Properties Trust's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Service Properties Trust's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Service Properties Trust's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.

Service Properties Trust Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.47%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Service Properties Trust's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 29.10%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $-0.787.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Service Properties Trust's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

-0.787

31.2501

-24.59

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(-24.59	-	5.505)	/	-24.59
	=	N/A

Service Properties Trust (NAS:SVC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Service Properties Trust Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Service Properties Trust (Service Properties Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Service Properties Trust (NAS:SVC) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HPO:Germany

Address

255 Washington Street, Suite 300, Two Newton Place, Newton, MA, USA, 02458-1634

Website

https://www.svcreit.com

Service Properties Trust is a real estate investment trust that owns hotel properties. These properties are located primarily in the United States, along with Canada and Puerto Rico. The company operates through its hotel investment unit and net lease investments. The firm derives the majority of its revenue from the hotel real estate investments unit. The hotels are distinguished between their service levels, which include full service, select service, and extended stay; and chain scale, which includes luxury, upper upscale, upscale, upper midscale, and midscale. Most hotels are extended stay or upscale. Some of the major hotel brands include Courtyard by Marriott, Royal Sonesta, Crowne Plaza Hotels & Resorts, and Hyatt Place.

Executives

Rajan Penkar	director	C/O TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC., 24601 CENTER RIDGE ROAD, WESTLAKE OH 44145
Todd W Hargreaves	officer: Vice President	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Robert E. Cramer	director	C/O SERVICE PROPERTIES TRUST, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Laurie B. Burns	director	C/O SERVICE PROPERTIES TRUST, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Brian E. Donley	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC,, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASHINGTON ST., NEWTON MA 02458
Donna D. Fraiche	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
William A. Lamkin	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Adam D. Portnoy	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Bruce M. Gans	other: Trustee	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Gerard M Martin	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Barry M. Portnoy	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Arthur G Koumantzelis	director	C/O REITMANAGEMENT & RESEARCH LLC, 400 CENTRE STREET, NUWTON MA 02458
John L Harrington	director	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Frank J Bailey	director	C/O REIT MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH LLC, 400 CENTRE STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
John G. Murray	officer: President, Secretary, COO	C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458