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As of today (2024-05-21), Delta Air Lines's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is USD71.59.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Delta Air Lines's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Delta Air Lines is 27.00%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Delta Air Lines's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Delta Air Lines was 1.82. The lowest was 0.10. And the median was 0.19.
The historical data trend for Delta Air Lines's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Delta Air Lines Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec14 | Dec15 | Dec16 | Dec17 | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | |||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 302.60 | - | - | - | - |
Delta Air Lines Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | |
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | - | - | - | - | - |
For the Airlines subindustry, Delta Air Lines's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Delta Air Lines's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Delta Air Lines's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.41%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Delta Air Lines's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
3 years was 0.00%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = USD6.203.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Delta Air Lines's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | = | EPS without NRI | * | {[(1+g1)/(1+d) | + | (1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10] |
+ | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10 | * | [(1+g2)/(1+d) | + | (1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]} |
set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | = | EPS without NRI | * | {[x | + | x^2 | + | ... | + | x^10] | + | x^10 | * | [y | + | y^2 | + | ... | + | y^10]} |
= | EPS without NRI | * | [x | * | (1-x^10) | / | (1-x) | + | x^10 | * | y | * | (1-y^10) | / | (1-y)] | |||||
= | 6.203 | * | 11.5406 | |||||||||||||||||
= | 71.59 |
Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) | = | (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | - | Current Price) | / | Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) |
= | (71.59 | - | 52.26) | / | 71.59 | |
= | 27.00 % |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings powerYou can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Delta Air Lines's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
David S Taylor | director | THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY, ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
Joanne D Smith | officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer | C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981, ATLANTA GA 30320 |
Steven M Sear | officer: Pres. Int'l & EVP Global Sales | C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981, ATLANTA GA 30320 |
Peter W Carter | officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer | C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981, ATLANTA GA 30320 |
Michael P Huerta | director | 1800 M STREET NW SUITE 800, WASHINGTON DC 20036 |
Mike Spanos | officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer | PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577 |
Vasant M Prabhu | director | C/O SAFEWAY INC, 5918 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
Glen W Hauenstein | officer: EVP-Network Plng & Rev Mgmt | 1600 SMITH ST, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
William C Carroll | officer: SVP, Finance & Controller | C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981, ATLANTA GA 30320 |
Francis S Blake | director | 2455 PACES FERRY RD, ATLANTA GA 30339 |
Edward H Bastian | officer: President and CEO NWA | C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., DEPT. 981, P.O. BOX 20574, ATLANTA GA 30320 |
Greg Creed | director | 1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213 |
Leslie D. Hale | director | 3 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1000, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
John E Laughter | officer: EVP - Chief of Operations | P.O. BOX 20574, C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. DEPT. 981, ATLANTA GA 30320 |
Daniel C. Janki | officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer | 5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, CARY NC 27513 |
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