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BKNG (Booking Holdings) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $1,890.37 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Booking Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-10-31), Booking Holdings's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $1,890.37.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Booking Holdings's Predictability Rank is 2.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Booking Holdings is -147.37%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Booking Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

BKNG' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.3   Med: 0.64   Max: 2.55
Current: 2.47

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Booking Holdings was 2.55. The lowest was 0.30. And the median was 0.64.

BKNG's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
84.31% of 51 companies
in the Travel & Leisure industry
Industry Median: 0.9 vs BKNG: 2.47

Booking Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Booking Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Booking Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Booking Holdings Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4,263.12 - - - 1,869.87

Booking Holdings Quarterly Data
Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 1,869.87 1,829.88 1,890.37 -

Competitive Comparison of Booking Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Travel Services subindustry, Booking Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Booking Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Booking Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Booking Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Booking Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.28%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Booking Holdings's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 3.60%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $163.802.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Booking Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=163.802*11.5406
=1,890.37

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(1890.37-4676.25)/1890.37
=-147.37 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Booking Holdings  (NAS:BKNG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Booking Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Booking Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Booking Holdings Business Description

Industry
Address
800 Connecticut Avenue, Norwalk, CT, USA, 06854
Booking is the world's largest online travel agency by sales, offering booking and payment services for hotel and alternative accommodation rooms, airline tickets, rental cars, restaurant reservations, cruises, experiences, and other vacation packages. The company operates several branded travel booking sites, including Booking.com, Agoda, OpenTable, and Rentalcars.com, and has expanded into travel media with the acquisitions of Kayak and Momondo. Transaction fees for online bookings account for the bulk of revenue and profits.
Executives
Paulo Pisano officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Susana D'emic officer: SVP, CAO & Controller C/O TIME INC., 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Glenn D Fogel officer: Hd Worldwide Strat & Planning PRICELINE.COM INCORPORATED, 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Radakovich Lynn Vojvodich director C/O BOOKING HOLDINGS INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
David I Goulden officer: Chief Financial Officer 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Nicholas Read director C/O BOOKING HOLDINGS INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Larry Quinlan director 2225 LAWSON LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Mylod Robert J Jr officer: Vice Chairman
Sumit Singh director C/O CHEWY, INC., 7700 WEST SUNRISE BLVD, PLANTATION FL 33322
Peter J Millones officer: Executive VP, General Counsel
Jeffery H Boyd director C/O ASPEN GROVE CAPITAL, LLC, PO BOX 9389, AVON CO 81620
Dijk Bob Van director C/O BOOKING HOLDINGS INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Gillian Tans officer: President & COO, Booking.com C/O THE PRICELINE GROUP INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Vanessa Ames Wittman director C/O MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Wei Hopeman director C/O BOOKING HOLDINGS INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854