Coventry Health Care, (FRA:HCA) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : €26.72 (As of May. 17, 2024)

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What is Coventry Health Care, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-17), Coventry Health Care,'s intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is €26.72.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Coventry Health Care,'s Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Coventry Health Care, is -41.50%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Coventry Health Care,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:HCA's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Healthcare Plans industry.
Industry Median: 0.925
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Coventry Health Care, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Coventry Health Care,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Coventry Health Care, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Coventry Health Care, Annual Data

Trend

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Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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Coventry Health Care, Quarterly Data
	Jun08	Sep08	Dec08	Mar09	Jun09	Sep09	Dec09	Mar10	Jun10	Sep10	Dec10	Mar11	Jun11	Sep11	Dec11	Mar12	Jun12	Sep12	Dec12	Mar13
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Coventry Health Care,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Healthcare Plans subindustry, Coventry Health Care,'s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Coventry Health Care,'s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Healthcare Plans Industry

For the Healthcare Plans industry and Healthcare sector, Coventry Health Care,'s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Coventry Health Care,'s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Coventry Health Care, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.40%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Coventry Health Care,'s average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = €2.3157.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Coventry Health Care,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

2.3157

11.5406

26.72

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(26.72	-	37.81)	/	26.72
	=	-41.50 %

Coventry Health Care, (FRA:HCA) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Coventry Health Care, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Coventry Health Care, (FRA:HCA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » Coventry Health Care, Inc. (FRA:HCA) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

Coventry Health Care, Inc. was incorporated under the laws of the State of Delaware on December 17, 1997 and is the successor to Coventry Corporation, which was incorporated on November 21, 1986. The Company provides risk and fee-based managed care products and services to a cross section of individuals, employer and government-funded groups, government agencies, and other insurance carriers and administrators. Its operations are segmented into three - Commercial Products, Government Programs and Workers' Compensation. The Commercial Products segment provides health plan commercial risk, commercial management services, Medicare Advantage Coordinated Care Plans, and Medicaid products. Its health plans offer commercial risk products, including health maintenance organization, preferred provider organization, and point of service products to individuals and employer groups. This segment also provides health insurance benefits under the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program; and administrative services only products, such as medical claims administration, pharmacy benefits management, and utilization management and quality assurance programs. In addition, it offers consumer-directed benefit options comprising health reimbursement and savings accounts to commercial customers; provider network rental services through a PPO network to national, regional, and local third-party administrators, as well as insurance carriers; and coordination of mental health and substance abuse treatment services. The Government Programs segment offers Medicare Part D program that provides access to prescription drug coverage for eligible beneficiaries; and comprehensive health benefits on a risk basis to members participating in the Medicare Advantage CCP and Medicaid programs. Its Workers Compensation segment offers fee-based managed care services, such as provider network access, bill review, pharmacy benefit management, durable medical equipment and ancillary services, and care management services to underwriters and administrators of workers compensation insurance. The company serves individuals, employer and government-funded groups, government agencies, and other insurance carriers and administrators through direct sales staff, and independent insurance brokers and agents.