Comfort Systems USA (Comfort Systems USA) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $190.30 (As of May. 19, 2024)

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What is Comfort Systems USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-19), Comfort Systems USA's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $190.30.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Comfort Systems USA's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Comfort Systems USA is -66.17%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Comfort Systems USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FIX' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.01 Med: 1.38 Max: 1.67
Current: 1.66

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Comfort Systems USA was 1.67. The lowest was 1.01. And the median was 1.38.

FIX's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
79% of 200 companies
in the Construction industry
Industry Median: 0.82 vs FIX: 1.66

Comfort Systems USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Comfort Systems USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Comfort Systems USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Comfort Systems USA Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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114.00

182.38

Comfort Systems USA Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															102.76	116.58	127.55	182.38	190.30

Competitive Comparison of Comfort Systems USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Engineering & Construction subindustry, Comfort Systems USA's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Comfort Systems USA's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Construction Industry

For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, Comfort Systems USA's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Comfort Systems USA's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Comfort Systems USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.42%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 13.30%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Comfort Systems USA's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 13.30%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 13.30%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $9.5418.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Comfort Systems USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.133)/(1+0.11) = 1.0207207207207
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

9.5418

19.9442

190.30

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(190.3	-	316.23)	/	190.3
	=	-66.17 %

Comfort Systems USA (NYSE:FIX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Comfort Systems USA Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Comfort Systems USA's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Comfort Systems USA (Comfort Systems USA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Comfort Systems USA Inc (NYSE:FIX) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9CF:Germany 9CF:Germany

Address

675 Bering Drive, Suite 400, Houston, TX, USA, 77057

Website

https://www.comfortsystemsusa.com

Comfort Systems USA Inc provides comprehensive mechanical contracting services, including heating, ventilation, & air conditioning, or HVAC; plumbing; piping & controls; construction; and other electrical components. Projects are mainly for commercial, industrial, & institutional buildings, & tend to be geared toward HVAC. Revenue is roughly split between installation services for newly constructed facilities & maintenance services for existing buildings. The company installs & repairs products and systems throughout the United States. It operates in two segments, Mechanical services & Electrical services, the majority is from the Mechanical services segment.

Executives

Skidmore Constance Ellen	director	675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Rhoman J Hardy	director	2828 N. HARWOOD ST., SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
William J Sandbrook	director	C/O U.S. CONCRETE, INC., 331 N. MAIN STREET, EULESS TX 76039
Vance W Tang	director	C/O KONE INC., 4225 NAPERVILLE ROAD, SUITE 400, LISLE IL 60532
Laura Finley Howell	officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary	675 BERING DRIVE SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Franklin Myers	director	C/O CAMERON INT'L CORPORATION, 1333 WEST LOOP S. #1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Brian E. Lane	officer: President / CEO	COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Julie Shaeff	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Cindy L. Wallis-lage	director	C/O COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
William Iii George	officer: Chief Financial Officer	675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Herman E Bulls	director	JONES LANG LASALLE, 1801 K STREET NW SUITE 1000, WASHINGTON DC 20006
T Mckenna Trent	officer: VP, General Counsel & Secy	C/O COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Darcy Anderson	director	C/O PEROT SYSTEMS CORP, 2300 WEST PLANO PKWY, PLANO TX 75075
Pablo G. Mercado,	director	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77024
Alan Krusi	director	AECOM, 555 SOUTH FLOWER ST. 37TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071