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Astec Industries (Astec Industries) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $19.58 (As of May. 15, 2024)


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What is Astec Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-15), Astec Industries's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $19.58.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Astec Industries's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Astec Industries is -79.78%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Astec Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ASTE's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry.
Industry Median: 0.75
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Astec Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Astec Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Astec Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Astec Industries Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Astec Industries Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Astec Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery subindustry, Astec Industries's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Astec Industries's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Industry

For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry and Industrials sector, Astec Industries's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Astec Industries's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Astec Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.34%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Astec Industries's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 3.90%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $1.6965.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Astec Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.6965*11.5406
=19.58

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (19.58 - 35.20) / 19.58
= -79.78 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Astec Industries  (NAS:ASTE) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Astec Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Astec Industries (Astec Industries) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1725 Shepherd Road, Chattanooga, TN, USA, 37421
Astec Industries Inc designs and manufactures equipment and components used primarily in road construction and other development activities. Its products are used through the entire process of building roads, from mining and crushing materials to creating the road surface. The company manufactures a line of plants, pavers, vehicles, and machines to mix and transform materials into construction components. It has two operating segments: infrastructure solutions and materials solutions. The majority of sales are derived from the United States. Its customers are asphalt producers, highway and heavy equipment contractors, ready mix concrete producers, demolition recycling markets, sand and gravel producers, open mine operators, quarry operators, and others.
Executives
Winford James Murphy Jr director 213 NORMANDIE DRIVE, OPELOUSAS LA 70570
Barend Snyman officer: Group President 3906 LOBLOLLY LANE, VALDOSTA GA 31601
Nalin Jain director 30 ISABELLA ST., PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp director 30 ISABELLA STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Mark Joseph Gliebe director 200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511
Linda I. Knoll director 5800 KNOB HILL CR, CLARKSON TN 48348
Litchfield Matthew T Sr officer: Chief Information Officer 1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Timothy A Averkamp officer: Group President 1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Merwe Jaco Van Der officer: Group President 1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Anshu Pasricha officer: GC and Corp Secretary 1725 SHEPHERD ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Mary L Howell director 1101 PENNSYLVANIA AVE STE 400, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Tracey H Cook director 1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
William Bradley Southern director 1610 WEST END AVENUE, NASHVILLE TN 37203
James B Baker director 1725 SHEPHERD ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
William Glenwood Dorey director PO BOX 50085, WATSONVILLE CA 95077-5085