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Novartis AG (FRA:NOTA) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share : €4.88 (As of Mar. 2024)


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What is Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Novartis AG's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was €0.496. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is €4.88 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2024.

During the past 12 months, Novartis AG's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 2.60% per year. During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 4.00% per year. During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 2.10% per year. During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 1.70% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Novartis AG was 4.00% per year. The lowest was 0.50% per year. And the median was 1.60% per year.

As of today (2024-05-19), Novartis AG's current stock price is €92.60. Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 was €4.88. Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 18.98.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Novartis AG was 21.84. The lowest was 14.52. And the median was 17.77.


Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

The historical data trend for Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Novartis AG Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 3.95 3.76 4.13 4.48 4.85

Novartis AG Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.69 4.80 4.85 4.85 4.88

Competitive Comparison of Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Novartis AG's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2024 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2024)
=0.496/107.3549*107.3549
=0.496

Current CPI (Mar. 2024) = 107.3549.

Novartis AG Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201406 0.709 101.517 0.750
201409 0.950 101.247 1.007
201412 1.442 100.704 1.537
201503 0.374 100.339 0.400
201506 0.679 100.464 0.726
201509 0.857 99.785 0.922
201512 1.210 99.386 1.307
201603 0.312 99.475 0.337
201606 0.903 100.088 0.969
201609 0.857 99.604 0.924
201612 1.113 99.380 1.202
201703 0.584 100.040 0.627
201706 1.136 100.285 1.216
201709 1.037 100.254 1.110
201712 1.035 100.213 1.109
201803 0.636 100.836 0.677
201806 1.262 101.435 1.336
201809 1.176 101.246 1.247
201812 1.170 100.906 1.245
201903 0.740 101.571 0.782
201906 1.013 102.044 1.066
201909 1.580 101.396 1.673
201912 1.133 101.063 1.204
202003 0.807 101.048 0.857
202006 1.352 100.743 1.441
202009 0.933 100.585 0.996
202012 1.073 100.241 1.149
202103 0.472 100.800 0.503
202106 1.299 101.352 1.376
202109 1.654 101.533 1.749
202112 1.303 101.776 1.374
202203 0.321 103.205 0.334
202206 1.357 104.783 1.390
202209 1.969 104.835 2.016
202212 1.580 104.666 1.621
202303 1.131 106.245 1.143
202306 1.137 106.576 1.145
202309 2.120 106.570 2.136
202312 0.780 106.461 0.787
202403 0.496 107.355 0.496

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.


Novartis AG  (FRA:NOTA) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=92.60/4.88
=18.98

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Novartis AG was 21.84. The lowest was 14.52. And the median was 17.77.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Novartis AG (FRA:NOTA) Business Description

Industry
Address
Lichtstrasse 35, Basel, CHE, 4056
Novartis develops and manufactures innovative drugs. The firm's key areas of drug development include oncology, rare diseases, neuroscience, immunology, respiratory, cardio-metabolic, and established medicines. The company sells its products globally, with the United States representing close to one third of total revenue.

Novartis AG (FRA:NOTA) Headlines

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