GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Seven Hills Realty Trust (NAS:SEVN) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Seven Hills Realty Trust (Seven Hills Realty Trust) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of May. 26, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

What is Seven Hills Realty Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Seven Hills Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Seven Hills Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the REIT - Mortgage subindustry, Seven Hills Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Seven Hills Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Seven Hills Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Seven Hills Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Seven Hills Realty Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.95

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Seven Hills Realty Trust  (NAS:SEVN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Seven Hills Realty Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Seven Hills Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Seven Hills Realty Trust (Seven Hills Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
255 Washington Street, Two Newton Place, Suite 300, Newton, MA, USA, 02458
Seven Hills Realty Trust, formerly RMR Mortgage Trust is a real estate investment trust. The company is engaged in the business of originating and investing in first mortgage whole loans secured by the middle market and transitional commercial real estate. Its non-fundamental primary objective is to balance capital preservation by generating risk-adjusted returns.
Executives
Barbara D Gilmore director C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Tiffany R Sy officer: CFO and Treasurer TWO NEWTON PLACE, 225 WASHINGTON STREET SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Thomas J. Lorenzini officer: President TREMONT MORTGAGE TRUST, TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Adam D. Portnoy director, 10 percent owner, officer: President of Fund, other: Dir.,Pres.,Owner of Advisor C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Tremont Realty Capital Llc 10 percent owner TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Rmr Group Inc. 10 percent owner TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Rmr Group Llc 10 percent owner TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Abp Trust 10 percent owner TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Phyllis M. Hollis director TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Matthew P. Jordan director C/O THE RMR GROUP INC., TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Joseph Morea director C/O REIT MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH LLC, TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, NEWTON MA 02458
William A. Lamkin director C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458
Gerald Douglas Lanois officer: CFO and Treasurer C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PLACE, 255 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 300, NEWTON MA 02458-1634
Brian E. Donley officer: CFO, Treasurer and Asst. Sect. C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC,, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASHINGTON ST., NEWTON MA 02458
Barry M. Portnoy director, 10 percent owner, other: Director,VP & Owner of Advisor C/O THE RMR GROUP LLC, TWO NEWTON PL., 255 WASH. ST., STE. 300, NEWTON MA 02458