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Portillos (Portillos) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.18% (As of May. 24, 2024)


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What is Portillos Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Portillos's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.18%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Portillos's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Restaurants subindustry, Portillos's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Portillos's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Portillos's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Portillos's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Portillos Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.30

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.18%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Portillos  (NAS:PTLO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Portillos Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Portillos (Portillos) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2001 Spring Road, Suite 400, Oak Brook, IL, USA, 60523
Portillos Inc serves the Chicago street food industry through high-energy and multichannel restaurants. It owns and operates fast-casual restaurants in the United States, along with two food production commissaries in Illinois. Its menu includes hot dogs, beef and sausage sandwiches, sandwiches and ribs, salads, burgers, chicken, Barnelli's pasta, sides and soup, and desserts and shakes.
Executives
Derrick Lee Pratt officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Michael Osanloo director, officer: President & CEO C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Kelly M Kaiser officer: General Counsel and Secretary 2001 SPRING RD, STE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Cook George Richard Iii officer: Senior VP, Technology C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Jill Francine Waite officer: Chief Human Resources Officer C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Nicholas Anthony Scarpino officer: See Remarks C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Michael K Ellis officer: Chief Development Officer C/O EINSTEIN NOAH RESTAURANT GROUP, INC., 555 ZANG STREET, SUITE 300, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Paulette R. Dodson director PETSMART, INC, 19601 N 27TH AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Berkshire Fund Viii-a, L.p. director, 10 percent owner C/O EIGHTH BERKSHIRE ASSOCIATES LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Eighth Berkshire Associates Llc director, 10 percent owner 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116-5009
Joshua Adam Lutzker director C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Michelle Greig Hook officer: CFO & Treasurer C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Sherri Lynn Abruscato officer: See Remarks C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Susan Beth Shelton officer: General Counsel and Secretary C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Berkshire Fund Viii, L.p. director, 10 percent owner C/O EIGHTH BERKSHIRE ASSOCIATES LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116