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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Poseida Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.17%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Biotechnology subindustry, Poseida Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Poseida Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Poseida Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -6.35 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.17% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Poseida Therapeutics (NAS:PSTX) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Poseida Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
John P. Schmid | director | 6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
Luke Corning | director | 614 DAVIS STREET, EVANSTON IL 60201 |
Marcea Bland Lloyd | director | 9360 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 110, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
Charles M Baum | director | C/O MIRATI THERAPEUTICS INC., 9393 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
Cynthia Collins | director | 65 WEST WATKINS MILL ROAD, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878 |
Rafael Amado | director | 210 EAST GRAND AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Kristin Yarema | officer: President, Cell Therapy | C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BLVD., SUITE 900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Malin Life Sciences Holdings Ltd | 10 percent owner | 2 HARBOUR SQUARE, CROFTON ROAD, DUN LAOGHAIRE, CO, DUBLIN L2 ---- |
Eric Ostertag | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | C/O POSEIDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4242 CAMPUS POINT COURT, SUITE 700, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
Kerry D. Ingalls | officer: Chief Operating Officer | C/O POSEIDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 9390 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
Brent Warner | officer: President, Gene Therapy | C/O POSEIDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 9390 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
Matthew A. Spear | officer: Chief Medical Officer | C/O POSEIDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4242 CAMPUS POINT COURT, SUITE 700, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
Harry J Leonhardt | officer: GC & Chief Compliance Officer | C/O HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC., 11388 SORRENTO VALLEY BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
David Hirsch | director | C/O LONGITUDE CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
Sean Murphy | director, 10 percent owner | C/O NOVAN, INC., 4222 EMPEROR BOULEVAND, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703 |
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