What is People's United Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, People's United Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of People's United Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, People's United Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
People's United Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, People's United Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where People's United Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
People's United Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -8.41 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.02% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
People's United Financial (People's United Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
850 Main Street, Bridgeport, CT, USA, 06604
People's United Financial Inc is a United States-based bank holding company. It operates in two segments: Commercial and Retail Banking. Commercial Banking includes commercial real estate lending, middle market, and business banking, mortgage warehouse and asset-based lending, and the equipment financing operations of PCLC, PUEFC, and LEAF. It also provides treasury management services, capital market capabilities, and commercial deposit products. Retail Banking includes consumer lending and consumer deposit gathering activities. The vast majority of its revenue is generated from the Commercial Banking segment.
Executives
| Jeffrey J Tengel |
officer: President |
1900 EAST NINTH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44114 |
| Lee C Powlus |
officer: Sr Ex VP & Chief Admin Officer |
850 MAIN STREET, BRIDGEPORT CT 06604 |
| Richard M Barry |
officer: Chief Credit Officer |
726 EXCHANGE STREET SUITE 618 BUFFALO NY 14210 |
| Jane Chwick |
director |
C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS, INC., 299 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| Cruger William Frank Jr. |
director |
C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 299 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| Kevin T. Bottomley |
director |
DANVERS BANCORP, INC. ONE CONANT STREET DANVERS MA 01923 |
| Nancy Mcallister, |
director |
30 CAMP WOODBINE ROAD, PORT JEFFERSON NY 11777 |
| James A Thomas |
director |
|
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