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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Meta Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 99.84%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Electronic Components subindustry, Meta Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Meta Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Meta Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | 6.46 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 99.84% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Meta Materials (NAS:MMAT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Meta Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Jennifer K. Cheraso | officer: Chief Human Resources Officer | C/O ARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 3901 MIDWAY PLACE NE, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87109 |
James Macmillan Fusaro | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 1900 S. PRICE ROAD, CHANDLER AZ 85248 |
Philippe Morali | director | 400 N. MCCARTHY BLVD., MILPITAS CA 94089 |
Georgios Palikaras | director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks | C/O META MATERIALS INC., 1 RESEARCH DRIVE, DARTMOUTH A5 BY2 4M9 |
David Daniel Eaton | officer: Chief Legal Officer | 1706 PASEO DE PERALTA, SANTA FE NM 87501 |
Uzi Sasson | officer: See Remarks | 2041 LANDINGS DRIVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
Vyomesh Joshi | director | 17343 VIA DEL CAMPO, SAN DIEGO CA 92127 |
Eugenia Corrales | director | C/O SHORETEL, INC., 960 STEWART DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085 |
Jonathan Waldern | officer: Chief Technical Officer | C/O META MATERIALS INC., 1 RESEARCH DRIVE, DARTMOUTH A5 B2Y 4M9 |
Rice Kenneth L Jr | officer: See Remarks | C/O 85 MAIN STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748 |
Thomas Gordon Welch | 10 percent owner | 47 PLEASANT STREET, PO BOX 40, CHESTER A5 B0J 1J0 |
John R Harding | director | C/O MARIMBA INC, 440 CLYDE AVENUE, MOUNTAINVIEW CA 94043 |
Steen Karsbo | director | C/O META MATERIALS INC., 1 RESEARCH DRIVE, DARTMOUTH A5 B2Y 4M9 |
Michael James Graves | director | 5700 PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093 |
Anne Barber Lambert | 10 percent owner | 47 PLEASANT STREET, PO BOX 40, CHESTER A5 B0J 1J0 |
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