GCM Grosvenor (GCM Grosvenor) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.15% (As of Jun. 08, 2024)

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What is GCM Grosvenor Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, GCM Grosvenor's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.15%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of GCM Grosvenor's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Asset Management subindustry, GCM Grosvenor's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

GCM Grosvenor's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Asset Management Industry

For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, GCM Grosvenor's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where GCM Grosvenor's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

GCM Grosvenor Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-6.47

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.15%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

GCM Grosvenor (NAS:GCMG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

GCM Grosvenor Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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GCM Grosvenor (GCM Grosvenor) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » GCM Grosvenor Inc (NAS:GCMG) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

900 North Michigan Avenue, Suite 1100, Chicago, IL, USA, 60611

Website

https://www.gcmgrosvenor.com

GCM Grosvenor Inc is a global alternative asset management firm. It invests on behalf of clients who seek allocations to alternative investments, such as private equity, infrastructure, real estate, credit, ESG and absolute return strategies. The company's offerings include multi-manager portfolios as well as portfolios of direct investments and co-investments. It also offers multi-client portfolios for investors who desire a turn-key solution for accessing alternative investments.

Executives

Pamela L Bentley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Sandra Hurse	officer: Chief HR Officer	C/O GROSVENOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Kathleen Patricia Sullivan	officer: M D and Head of Accounting	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Adage Capital Partners Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Gcm Progress Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GCM GROSVENOR, 900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Gcm Progress Subsidiary Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GCM GROSVENOR, 900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Cf Finance Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Stephen Malkin	director	C/O GROSVENOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Francesca Cornelli	director	C/O GROSVENOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Angela Blanton	director	C/O GROSVENOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Gcm V, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GROSVENOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Grosvenor Holdings, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Jonathan Reisin Levin	director, officer: President	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Frederick Pollock	officer: Chief Investment Officer	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Michael Jay Sacks	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611