What is Rockwood Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Rockwood Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Rockwood Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Specialty Chemicals subindustry, Rockwood Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Rockwood Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Chemicals Industry
For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Rockwood Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Rockwood Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Rockwood Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Rockwood Holdings (FRA:R6H) Business Description
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Rockwood Holdings Inc was incorporated in Delaware in September 2000. It is a developer, manufacturer and marketer of value-added specialty chemicals and materials used for industrial and commercial purposes. The Company operates through two business segments: Lithium and Surface Treatment. The Lithium segment operates under the Rockwood Lithium brand name and develops lithium chemicals for industries and end markets. It develops and manufactures basic lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, and value-added lithium specialties and reagents, including butyllithium and lithium aluminum hydride. It operates lithium business along the following five business divisions reflecting its core end-markets: Lithium Salts; Special Salts; Butyllithium/Lithium Metal; Battery Products and Lithium Specialties. Lithium segment obtains lithium brine which it uses to produce lithium products through evaporation in the Salar de Atacama, Chile and Silver Peak, Nevada. Lithium's customers include Bayer CropScience (a division of Bayer AG), Syngenta AG, Umicore S.A., Samsung SDI Co. Ltd. and Royal DSM N.V. Surface Treatment segment operates under the Chemetall brand name and develops and manufactures metal surface treatment products and services for industries and end market. Surface Treatment's products are used for a variety of applications and serve the automotive, aerospace and general industrial markets, including steel and metal-working industries. The customers include ArcelorMittal, Daimler AG, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (EADS) N.V., Ford, Renault-Nissan and Volkswagen AG. The competitors in this segment includes: Dow Corning Corporation, Catalise Industria e Comercio de Metals Ltda and Nachmann S.r.I. The Company's operations are subject to regulation by the FDA with respect to certain products produced, marketed and sold by its Lithium segment, which includes pharmaceutical intermediates.
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