What is Quicksilver Resources Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Quicksilver Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Quicksilver Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Quicksilver Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Quicksilver Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Quicksilver Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Quicksilver Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Quicksilver Resources Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Quicksilver Resources (FRA:QSR) Business Description
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Quicksilver Resources Inc was organized as a Delaware corporation in 1997 and became a public company in 1999. It is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of onshore oil and natural gas in North America and are based in Fort Worth, Texas. The Company focuses on unconventional reservoirs where hydrocarbons may be found in challenging geological conditions, such as fractured shales and coalbeds. Its producing oil and natural gas properties in the United States are principally located in Texas and in Canada in Alberta and British Columbia. Its three core development areas include: Barnett Shale; Horn River; and Horseshoe Canyon. Additionally, It has an oil exploration opportunity in the Delaware basin in western Texas. The Company competes for acquisitions of prospective oil and natural gas properties and oil and gas reserves. Its oil and natural gas operations are focused onshore in North America, in basins containing unconventional reservoirs with predictable, long-lived production. Its current production and development operations are concentrated in its three core areas: the Barnett Shale, Horn River and Horseshoe Canyon. The Company compete for acquisitions of prospective oil and natural gas properties and oil and natural gas reserves. It also compete for drilling rigs and equipment used to drill for and produce oil and natural gas. The Company is subject to a number of federal, state, provincial and local laws and regulations, whose purpose is to protect the health and safety of workers, both generally and within Its industry.
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