What is Hercules Offshore Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Hercules Offshore's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Hercules Offshore's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Oil & Gas Drilling subindustry, Hercules Offshore's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Hercules Offshore's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Hercules Offshore's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Hercules Offshore's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Hercules Offshore Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Hercules Offshore (FRA:H6XA) Business Description
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Hercules Offshore Inc is a Delaware corporation formed on July 27, 2004. The Company provides shallow-water drilling and marine services to the oil and natural gas exploration and production industry. It provides services to national oil and gas companies, to integrated energy companies and oil and natural gas operators. Its diverse fleet is capable of providing services such as oil and gas exploration and development drilling, well service, platform inspection, maintenance and decommissioning operations in several key shallow-water provinces. Its business segments includes: Domestic Offshore, International Offshore, and International Liftboats. Domestic Offshore includes 18 jackup rigs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico that can drill in maximum water depths ranging from 120 to 350 feet. Nine of the jackup rigs are either under contract or available for contracts and nine are cold stacked. International Offshore includes nine jackup rigs outside of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The Company has three jackup rigs contracted offshore in Saudi Arabia, one jackup rig contracted offshore in Congo, one jackup rig ready stacked and one jackup rig warm stacked in Gabon, one jackup ready stacked in the Netherlands and one jackup rig warm stacked in Malaysia. Additionally, the Company has one newbuild jackup rig under construction in Singapore that is expected to be delivered in the second quarter of 2016. International Liftboats - includes 19 liftboats. Fifteen are operating or available for contracts offshore West Africa, one is cold stacked offshore West Africa and three are operating or available for contracts in the Middle East region. Its customers include integrated energy companies, independent oil and natural gas operators and national oil companies. The Company is subject to the jurisdiction of the Coast Guard, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Customs and Boarder Protection, the Department of Interior, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement as well as private industry organizations such as the American Bureau of Shipping.
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