What is ACNB Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, ACNB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.13%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of ACNB's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, ACNB's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ACNB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, ACNB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ACNB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
ACNB Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -6.61 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.13% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
ACNB (ACNB) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
16 Lincoln Square, P.O. BOX 3129, Gettysburg, PA, USA, 17325
ACNB Corp provides banking, insurance, and financial services to businesses and consumers, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, ACNB Bank and ACNB Insurance Services, Inc. The corporation has two reporting segments, the Bank and ACNB Insurance Services. ACNB Insurance Services is managed separately from the Banking segment, which includes the Bank and related financial services that the corporation offers through its banking subsidiary. ACNB Insurance Services, Inc. offers a broad range of property and casualty, life, and health insurance to both commercial and individual clients. The corporation's primary source of revenue is interest income on loans and investment securities and fee income on its products and services.
Executives
| Frank Iii Elsner |
director |
894 LAUREL WOODS LANE, HANOVER PA 17331 |
| James Helt |
other: EVP/Banking Services ACNB Bank |
360 THORNHILL DRIVE, HANOVER PA 17331 |
| Scott L Kelley |
director |
2068 ROSEWOOD LANE, YORK PA 17403 |
| Alan J Stock |
director |
245 ORCHARD DRIVE, HANOVER PA 17331 |
| Andrew A Bradley |
other: ACNB Bank SVP |
16 LINCOLN SQUARE, GETTYSBURG PA 17325 |
| Brett D Fulk |
other: ACNB Bank EVP |
34 MILLER ROAD, NEW RINGGOLD PA 17960 |
| Kevin J Hayes |
officer: SVP/Secretary & CGO |
16 LINCOLN SQUARE, GETTYSBURG PA 17325 |
| Emily E Berwager |
other: ACNB Bank SVP |
16 LINCOLN SQUARE, GETTYSBURG PA 17325 |
| Mark E Blacksten |
other: ACNB Bank EVP |
16 LINCOLN SQUARE, GETTYSBURG PA 17325 |
| Thomas R Stone |
other: ACNB Bank EVP |
2701 PRIMROSE LANE E, YORK PA 17402 |
| Seibel Donald Arthur Jr |
director |
1001 GREEN VALLEY ROAD, NEW WINDSOR MD 21776 |
| James J Lott |
director |
1230 IDAVILLE YORK SPRINGS ROAD, GARDNERS PA 17324 |
| David L Sites |
director |
220 DOUBLEDAY AVENUE, GETTYSBURG PA 17325 |
| Lynda L Glass |
officer: EVP, Secretary & Treasurer |
68 WEST MOUNTAIN TOP DRIVE, ORRTANNA PA 17353 |
| Jason H Weber |
other: ACNB Bank EVP |
1830 BOULDER DRIVE, DOWNINGTOWN PA 19335 |
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