Personalis (PSNL, Financial) has unveiled interim findings from the VICTORI study, showcasing the effectiveness of its NeXT Personal assay in identifying early indicators of residual or recurrent colorectal cancer. The research, conducted by Dr. Jonathan Loree's team at BC Cancer in Vancouver, involved testing blood samples from 71 patients with resectable Stage I-IV colorectal cancer for circulating tumor DNA using the ultrasensitive NeXT Personal assay. Results were shared at the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting in Chicago by Emma Titmuss from BC Cancer.
Key insights from the VICTORI study indicate that 100% of patients experiencing recurrence were detected as circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) positive by NeXT Personal before imaging could confirm it. Conversely, all patients who remained ctDNA negative throughout the study have continued to be disease-free. Notably, 87% of clinical recurrences were identified within a "landmark window" of 2 to 8 weeks post-surgery, with 85% of these identified by just 4 weeks. Additionally, 64% of ctDNA detections during this period were within the assay's ultrasensitive range.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 6 analysts, the average target price for Personalis Inc (PSNL, Financial) is $7.33 with a high estimate of $9.00 and a low estimate of $5.00. The average target implies an upside of 95.56% from the current price of $3.75. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Personalis Inc (PSNL) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 7 brokerage firms, Personalis Inc's (PSNL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Personalis Inc (PSNL, Financial) in one year is $2.14, suggesting a downside of 42.93% from the current price of $3.75. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Personalis Inc (PSNL) Summary page.
PSNL Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 27, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Personalis Inc (PSNL, Financial) reported a 15% increase in full-year revenue for 2024, reaching $84.6 million, driven by a 60% growth in biopharma revenue.
- The company has a strong partnership with Moderna, extending their agreement for ongoing clinical trials, which is expected to be a key revenue driver in the next decade.
- Personalis Inc (PSNL) successfully raised approximately $115 million in 2024, strengthening their cash position to $185 million, providing a strong liquidity position.
- The company is on track to achieve CMS reimbursement for at least two indications in 2025, with submissions for breast cancer already made.
- Personalis Inc (PSNL) has seen significant traction in the clinical marketplace, with a 52% increase in molecular tests delivered in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.
Negative Points
- Total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 decreased by 15% compared to the same period in the prior year, primarily due to lower volume from certain customers.
- Gross margin for 2025 is expected to be lower, in the range of 21% to 23%, due to the impact of investing in clinical test volume ahead of reimbursement.
- The company anticipates a net loss of approximately $85 million in 2025, including $20 million of unreimbursed test costs.
- Personalis Inc (PSNL) faces uncertainty in the timing of reimbursement decisions, which could impact revenue and gross margin projections.
- The company is experiencing a decline in revenue from certain enterprise customers, which could affect overall revenue growth.
