Pfizer Inc (PFE, Financial) kicks off its Q1 report before U.S. markets open on Tuesday, and investors are bracing for a bit of a rough patch. Wall Street models call for adjusted EPS of $0.69, down from $0.82 a year ago, on revenue of $14.11 billionâa 5.3% slide from Q1 2024's $14.88 billion haul.
Still, don't bet against Pfizer's knack for surprises. Over its last eight quarters, the drugmaker has topped EPS forecasts every time and beaten revenue estimates in five of those periods.
In Q1 2024, it delivered GAAP EPS of $0.82â$0.31 above consensusâdespite an 18.6% revenue drop. It followed that up with Q2 EPS of $0.60 (+$0.14 beat), Q3 EPS of $1.06 (+$0.45), and Q4 EPS of $0.63 (+$0.17), each time delivering healthy top-line beats and double-digit percentage growth.
This quarter, patent expiries on blockbusters like Ibrance and Eliquis are the headline threats, alongside looming drug-pricing reforms. Investors will be listening for management's take on how the company plans to defend its franchiseâparticularly in vaccines and oncologyâand whether any pipeline updates can offset the patent cliff.
On valuation, GuruFocus pegs fair value at $28.82âabout 25% above Monday's $23 closeâsuggesting modest undervaluation. GF's model, which spiked toward $55 during Pfizer's vaccine-driven boom in early 2022, has since settled around $30. Today's share price sits below the ââ10%â band (â$26) but comfortably above the ââ30%â zone (â$20), implying limited downside and clear upside to intrinsic value. The fair-value forecast remains pinned near $28â29 through 2027.
Pfizer stock has trailed its healthcare peers recently, but this quarter could remind investors why the company's beat-streak is more than luck. If management can steer through patent headwinds and deliver upbeat guidance on its next-gen pipeline, the stock may get the bounce investors have come to expect.
