UBS has revised its price target for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD, Financial) to $22, down from $25, while maintaining a Buy rating. The estimate adjustment follows Acadia's recent financial disclosures, where the company reported first-quarter results for its drug Nuplazid that surpassed market expectations. However, the drug Daybue underperformed against analysts' projections. These mixed outcomes led to UBS's reassessment of the company's valuations.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 18 analysts, the average target price for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD, Financial) is $24.22 with a high estimate of $37.00 and a low estimate of $11.00. The average target implies an upside of 65.34% from the current price of $14.65. More detailed estimate data can be found on the ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 20 brokerage firms, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc's (ACAD, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.4, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD, Financial) in one year is $35.97, suggesting a upside of 145.53% from the current price of $14.65. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) Summary page.
ACAD Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 26, 2025
- Total Revenue (Q4 2024): $259.6 million, up 12% year over year.
- Total Revenue (Full Year 2024): $957.8 million, up 32% from the prior year.
- DAYBUE Sales (Q4 2024): $96.7 million, up 11% year over year and 6% sequentially.
- DAYBUE Sales (Full Year 2024): $348.4 million, up 97% from 2023.
- NUPLAZID Sales (Q4 2024): $162.9 million, up 13% year over year.
- NUPLAZID Sales (Full Year 2024): $609.4 million, up 11% from the prior year.
- R&D Expenses (Full Year 2024): $303.2 million, decreased from $351.6 million in 2023.
- SG&A Expenses (Full Year 2024): $488.4 million, increased from $406.6 million in 2023.
- Cash Balance (End of 2024): $756 million, up from $438.9 million at the end of 2023.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: $1.03 billion to $1.095 billion.
- DAYBUE 2025 Sales Guidance: $380 million to $405 million in the US.
- NUPLAZID 2025 Sales Guidance: $650 million to $690 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD, Financial) reported strong financial results with total revenue of $957.8 million for 2024, up 32% from the prior year.
- DAYBUE and NUPLAZID, ACADIA's commercial brands, achieved record quarterly revenues, with DAYBUE sales increasing by 97% year-over-year.
- The company has submitted a marketing application for trofinetide with the European Medicines Agency, marking its first potential approval outside North America.
- ACADIA has expanded its pipeline with new programs, including ACP-711 for essential tremor and ACP-204 for Lewy Body Dementia Psychosis.
- The company strengthened its balance sheet with the sale of a priority review voucher, increasing its cash balance to $756 million by the end of 2024.
Negative Points
- ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) anticipates a sequential decline in DAYBUE net product sales in Q1 2025 due to seasonal factors and changes in gross-to-net pricing.
- The company faces challenges in expanding DAYBUE's market penetration, with only 30% of Rett syndrome patients having tried the drug to date.
- NUPLAZID's market share in patients receiving atypical antipsychotics for Parkinson's-related hallucinations and delusions remains at only 25%, indicating room for growth but also highlighting competitive pressures.
- The gross-to-net adjustments for DAYBUE and NUPLAZID are expected to increase due to the Medicare Part D redesign, impacting net pricing.
- ACADIA's R&D expenses are projected to increase in 2025, driven by clinical and personnel costs, which may affect profitability despite expected revenue growth.
