Alliance Global Partners has adjusted its price target for Alexander & Baldwin, reducing it from $22 to $21. Despite this revision, the firm maintains a Buy rating on the company's shares following its first-quarter performance.
The decision to lower the target price reflects an updated evaluation, yet the continued Buy rating signifies confidence in Alexander & Baldwin's future prospects. Investors interested in the stock, listed as (ALEX, Financial), should consider these factors when making investment decisions.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 4 analysts, the average target price for Alexander & Baldwin Inc (ALEX, Financial) is $21.50 with a high estimate of $22.00 and a low estimate of $21.00. The average target implies an upside of 31.82% from the current price of $16.31. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Alexander & Baldwin Inc (ALEX) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 4 brokerage firms, Alexander & Baldwin Inc's (ALEX, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Alexander & Baldwin Inc (ALEX, Financial) in one year is $17.23, suggesting a upside of 5.64% from the current price of $16.31. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Alexander & Baldwin Inc (ALEX) Summary page.
ALEX Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 27, 2025
- Same-Store NOI Growth: 2.4% for Q4 and 2.9% for the full year 2024; excluding prior year reserves, 2.9% for Q4 and 3.3% for the year.
- FFO: $0.30 per share for Q4, $1.37 per share for the full year 2024.
- AFFO: $0.19 per share for Q4, $1.10 per share for the full year 2024.
- Leased Occupancy: 94.6%, up 60 basis points sequentially.
- Economic Occupancy: 92.9%, down 10 basis points from last quarter and the same period last year.
- Leasing Activity: 47 leases executed in Q4, representing over 140,000 square feet; 209 leases or 630,000 square feet for 2024.
- Blended Leasing Spreads: 14% for Q4, 11.7% for 2024.
- Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratio: 3.6 times at year-end 2024.
- G&A Expenses: Decreased by $4.2 million or 12.4% in 2024 compared to 2023.
- Dividend: $0.225 per share for Q4, with a first quarter 2025 dividend declared at the same rate.
- 2025 Guidance: Same-store NOI growth of 2.4% to 3.2%; FFO between $1.13 and $1.20 per share.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Alexander & Baldwin Inc (ALEX, Financial) achieved a strong FFO growth of 20.4% CAGR since 2020, outperforming the NAREIT shopping center sub-sector.
- The company successfully refinanced $130 million of mortgage debt with unsecured debt at fixed rates, enhancing its capital structure.
- ALEX reported strong leasing activity with 47 leases executed in Q4 2024, representing over 140,000 square feet of GLA.
- The company reduced G&A expenses by $4.2 million or 12.4% in 2024 compared to 2023, streamlining its cost structure.
- ALEX maintained a strong balance sheet with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.6 times and 96% of its debt at fixed rates.
Negative Points
- Economic occupancy at the end of the quarter was 92.9%, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter and the same period last year.
- The company faced a tenant bankruptcy with Liberated Brands, affecting approximately $450,000 of ABR and 7,000 square feet of space.
- ALEX's guidance for 2025 indicates a potential deceleration in same-store NOI growth compared to previous years.
- The industrial portfolio experienced 50,000 square feet of vacancy, which could impact short-term occupancy rates.
- The company anticipates challenges in financing smaller agricultural lots, which could affect non-core land sales.
